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惠誉维持日月光负向评等观察并核定短期评等
June 6, 2017 / 8:01 AM / 4 months ago

惠誉维持日月光负向评等观察并核定短期评等

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, June 06 (Fitch) 惠誉国际信用公司确认将日月光半导体制造股份有限公司 (日月光) 的「BBB」长期外币发行人违约评等 (IDR)、「BBB」优先无担保评等,及其「A+(twn)」国内长期评等维持负向评等观察。惠誉同时授予日月光「F3」级的短期发行人违约评等和「F1(twn)」级 的国内短期评等。 日月光与矽品精密工业股份有限公司 (矽品) 于 2017 年 5月 18 日宣布美国反托拉斯主管机关批准了日月光与矽品的合并案,将成立控股公司持有日月光与矽品 100% 的股权。稍早双方已于2016 年11月接获台湾公平交易委员会的不禁止结合核准函。但是,双方仍需获得中国反托拉斯当局和股东的批准。 日月光提议以现金收购尚未持有的矽品股份过后,惠誉于 2015 年 12 月 17 日将日月光的评等列为负向评等观察。双方的董事会已于 2016 年 6 月 30 日采行核准合并案的决议。合并协议若未获履行,将于 2017 年 12 月 31 日失效。 关键评等驱动因素 维持负向评等观察:若合并案计画付诸实行,拟议的控股公司与日月光双方在财务、营运与策略上的关系将会非常密切。因此,日月光的评等或将取决于控股公司的整体信用状况。惠 誉认为控股公司的整体信用状况可能明显不如日月光,因而将日月光列入负面观察名单。待合作确定完成后,产业控股公司的资本结构、财务状况及财务政策更加明朗,届时应可解除 日月光的评等观察状态。我们可能会确认日月光的评等维持现有水平,或是调降评等,但调降将限制在一级以内。 较弱的财务杠杆比例:我们预料倘若交易发生,且全以债务融资,产业控股公司的合并拟制性经营业务所得资金 (FFO) 调整后杠杆比例可能在2017年超过3.0倍,相比之下,我们对日月光单独信用状况的调降指标为2.0倍。预期产业控股公司将需要两到三年的时间才可降低其财务杠杆比例至 低于2.5倍,去杠杆化的速度将取决于全球半导体产业复苏步伐,成本和资本支出协同效应的成果及其派息政策。 拟议的交易案欲以日月光每1股普通股换发产业控股公司普通股0.5股,并以矽品每1股普通股换发现金新台币51元。整个交易案所需现金可能高达1300亿新台币 (约为40亿美元),其中包括收购日月光未持有之矽品的股份,以及矽品的4亿美元尚未行使可换股债券可能转换而成的新矽品股份,且可能透过新债务提供所需资金。日月光于 2017 年 3 月透过发行新股募集现金100亿新台币,债务总额因此减为980亿新台币 (2016年:1110亿新台币)。 更强的市场地位:我们认为拟议的交易案可能对日月光在业务上带来显着利益,在外包半导体封装测试业里的市占率可提昇至约29%,并提高技术能力及资源集合能力,迎合系统级 封装业务 (SiP) 迅速成长的需求。我们预料拟议合并后的控股公司将有望在资本支出和研发支出的重叠项目中达到成本综效及相关利益。但是,当前的客户亦可能多元化选择供应商,转而减少向日月 光采购某些产品,这可能带来一些收入的减少。根据拟制性合并财务报告准则,我们估计合并后的控股公司之租赁调整后总债务约为70亿至72亿美元,EBITDA为27亿至2 8亿美元。 稳固的自由现金流:我们估计合并后的控股公司每年至少产生4亿至5亿美元的自由现金流。合并后的控股公司每年资本支出约为10亿美元,支付股息约为4亿至5亿美元,利息和 税费支出约为3亿至4亿美元。 低个位数的营收成长率:惠誉认为日月光的营收将成长约 3% 至 4%,大致符合智慧型手机产业的整体成长率。对于 OSAT (委外封装测试) 业者而言,智慧型手机仍是封装测试服务最重要的单一驱动因素。合并后实体的营业 EBITDAR 利润率可望维持在约 19% 至 20% 的水准,近似于日月光本身的获利能力。倘若能持续改善电子制造服务 (EMS) 部门的获利率,则日月光中期内的获利水准将有所提升。2017 年第一季的 EMS 部门毛利率扩大至 10% (2016 年第一季:8%),受惠于价格与成本撙节双双好转。 负向产业展望:今后的 OSAT 产业很可能面临市场基本面疲软、激烈竞争、债务融资整并以及大额投资需求。产能利用率可能将低于 2016 年水准,业界竞争持续激烈,同时业界第三大的江苏长电科技有限公司 (JCET) 积极扩张产能,逐渐拉近与台湾同业的技术差距。平均销售价格 (ASPs) 则可能每年下滑 3% 至 5% 左右。 产业营收可能仅有 3% 至 4% 的成长,由中国及印度的智慧型手机需求成长所带动。多数分析师预测,2017 年全球智慧型手机需求仅呈现低个位数百分比的成长,个人电脑及平板电脑市场则持续萎缩。OSAT 产业的持续合并,也仅能因应一部分的市场零碎化与价格侵蚀问题。合并的效益,可能只会在中期内,以产能利用率提高、议价能力改善与 ASP 维持稳定的形式浮现。 短期评等:依据惠誉「非金融企业评等准则」所列之短期 / 长期评等关系,授予短期评等。据研判,任何长期评等的调降,将限制在一级以内,因此短期评等并未列入负向评等观察 (RWN);长期评等调降幅度达到两级,才会导致短期评等的调降。 评等摘要 日月光的「BBB」评等反映公司于 OSAT 产业的市场领导地位、技术能力,以及稳健的既有客户关系。日月光 2017 年的 FFO (经营业务所得资金) 调整后杠杆比例为 2.3 倍,优于 OSAT 同业艾克尔 (Amkor) 的 2.5 倍与 JCET 集团的 4.0 倍至 4.3 倍。日月光的产能利用状况稳定,尽管营业现金流量高于年度资本支出,创造自由现金流量的能力仍然大幅优于同业。惠誉认为,日月光的市场地位、先进的技术与封装能力,及营收 来源的多元化,将能有效抵御业界的激烈竞争。 关键评等假设 惠誉评估发行人评等的关键假设包括: - 控股公司将遵循日月光与矽品在 2016 年 6 月 30 日所作联合声明的条款,在 2017 年顺利成立并挂牌上市 - 营收成长 3% 至 4%,符合产业趋势。 - 稳定的 EBITDA 利润率。 - 资本支出与研发综效将在中期内逐步实现 - 日月光将支付约 1300 亿新台币收购矽品其余 (67%) 的股权。 评等敏感因素 单独或共同导致惠誉采取正面评等行动的发展因素包括目前没有正面评等行动的设想: 如日月光和矽品之合作计划无法继续,惠誉可能会将日月光的评等解除评等观察状态,并确认其评等。 单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面的评等行动的未来发展因素: 惠誉待合作计划确定,合并实体的资本结构、财务状况及财务政策更加明朗后,将日月光的评等解除负向评等观察状态。这可能在并购完成的六个月后,方有机会出现。评等将取决于 在交易完成后产业控股公司的拟制性杠杆比例,利用派息过后自由现金流实施去杠杆化的能见度与延续性,以及可能发行新股融资的金额。假设我们在与公司方面商谈后,判断产业控 股公司整体经营风险的降低,足以弥补因杠杆比例走弱所造成之较高财务风险,那么我们可能会确认日月光当前的评等及调整展望至稳定。 流动性 流动性充足:2017 年 3 月底时日月光持有无限制现金 380 亿新台币、未动用承诺设施 50 亿新台币,足以偿付 350 亿的短期债务。日月光承诺向银行机构申请联贷,筹措收购矽品其余 (67%) 的股权所需的 1300 亿新台币现金。 完整评等清单 日月光半导体股份有限公司 -- 长期外币发行人违约评等为「BBB」,维持负向观察 -- 国内长期评等为「A+ (twn)」,维持负向观察 -- 外币优先无担保评等为「BBB」,维持负向观察 -- 授予国内短期评等「F3」 -- 授予国家短期评等「F1(twn)」 Anstock II Limited -- 2017 年到期之 2.125% 三亿美元优先无担保保证票据的评等为「BBB」,维持负向观察 这类证券已获得日月光无条件且不可撤销的担保。 注:此为中文译本,若与原英文版本有任何出入,请以英文版为准。 Contact: Primary Analyst Nitin Soni Director +65 6796 7235 Fitch Ratings Singapore Pte Ltd One Raffles Quay, South Tower #22-11 Singapore 048583 Secondary Analyst Kelvin Ho Director +85 2 2263 9940 Committee Chairperson Steve Durose Managing Director +61 2 8256 0307 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com. Applicable Criteria: Criteria for Rating Non-Financial Corporates (pub. 27 Sep 2016) National Scale Ratings Criteria (pub. 30 Oct 2013) Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status Endorsement Policy Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 编辑附注:惠誉国内评等系依该市场需求或于主权评等相对较低的国家中,提供各受评机构相对信用品质指标。该国国内信用风险最低者,其评等为‘AAA’,该国其余受评机构或 债券之评等即以此作为相对衡量基准。国内评等主要提供予该国市场之国内投资人参考使用,并加注受评机构所属国家的专属标记以兹识别,如‘AAA(twn)’即为台湾之国内 评等。因此,不同国家之国内评等无法跨国比较。 Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com Applicable Criteria Criteria for Rating Non-Financial Corporates (pub. 10 Mar 2017) here National Scale Ratings Criteria (pub. 07 Mar 2017) here Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status here#solicitation Endorsement Policy here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. 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