July 6, 2017 / 8:27 AM / 15 days ago

惠誉:中国住宅市场降温将令经济承压

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(The following statement was released by the rating agency) SHANGHAI/HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, July 06 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年7月2日发布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1025993">Fitch: China's Cooling Housing Market Set to Weigh on Economy 惠誉评级表示,由于多个城市加强住宅限购并且收紧信贷,中国住宅市场可能继续降温。作为中国经济的关键周期性行业,住宅市场将令今年下半年和2018年的经济增长承压。 已经有迹象表明住宅市场增长正在放缓。2017年5月,新建住宅销售过去十二个月同比增速已放缓至24.0%,在2016年12月达到36.2%的高峰后连续第五个月降低 。价格涨幅也缩小。2016年,一线城市的二手住宅价格上涨28.7%,但2017年前五个月内仅增长3.6%,并在5月出现2014年9月以来的首次下跌。 住宅市场低迷受到政策驱动,因政府介入以预防市场泡沫扩大。住宅限购及按揭贷款规定收紧遏制了投机型及改善型购房。并且部分首次购房者在住宅价格可能回调的预期下或推迟购 房。同时,政府越来越注重控制杠杆率和抑制金融风险,已经导致货币市场利率自去年12月开始攀升,并且近期部分银行提高了按揭利率。 中国住宅市场的短期前景与国内信贷周期密切相关。如下图所示,住宅销售的走势总体与“信贷刺激”或信贷增量(包括地方政府债券)占GDP比重的变化一致。信贷刺激减弱和限 购政策收紧可能进一步拖累2017年下半年的住宅销售。 <iframe allowfullscreen src="//e.infogram.com/credit_impluse_points_to_slower_home_sales_growth?src=embe d" title="Credit Impluse Points to Slower Home Sales Growth" width="550" height="647" scrolling="no" frameborder="0"> 尽管如此,政府将尽力避免造成重大市场波动。2015年初,在上一次限购政策收紧之后,住宅销售同比下滑9%,导致在政策随即放宽后,被抑制的需求强劲释放。我们预计这次 政府将采取更为谨慎的措施,或将使2017下半年的住宅销售出现增长停滞而非下降。 由于需求减弱,房价可能在2017下半年小幅下降。我们预计一线城市的房价将比低线城市更坚挺。过去四年内,一线城市的房价上涨近90%,而低线城市的房价涨幅为10%- 25%。但是,一线城市的需求持续强劲,且土地供应紧张,因此如果价格跌幅超过政府预期,政府有更多空间支持市场。低线城市的需求更弱,且开发商的住宅库存更高。 住宅市场可能走弱是我们预测下半年GDP增长将会放缓的主要原因之一。住宅投资约占GDP的10%,大多数的估算认为,如果将其支撑的产业包括在内,则其对GDP的贡献更 高。从销售到住宅投资增长往往有6至8个月的滞后,这就意味着住宅市场增长放缓对经济的影响将持续到2018年,我们预计2018年的GDP增速将下滑至稍低于6%的水平 。 惠誉评级在《Global Economic Outlook - June 2017(全球经济展望 ——2017年6月)》中探究了中国住宅市场放缓对经济的影响等多个主题,请参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com或点击本新闻稿上方链接获取。 联系人: Ying Wang(王颖) 高级董事 企业评级 +86 21 5097 3010 惠誉(北京)信用评级有限公司上海分公司 中国上海市浦东新区陆家嘴环路479号 上海中心大厦34层3401室 Andrew Fennell 董事 主权评级 +852 2263 9925 Brian Coulton 首席分析师 董事总经理 +44 20 3530 1140 Dan Martin 高级分析师 惠誉快讯 +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 详情参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 Related Research Global Economic Outlook - June 2017 here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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