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惠誉:外资银行对中国的风险敞口回升;2017年将升高
June 21, 2017 / 10:36 AM / a month ago

惠誉:外资银行对中国的风险敞口回升;2017年将升高

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(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, June 21 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年6月13日发布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1025023">Correction: Fitch: Foreign Banks' China Exposure on Rebound; To Rise in 2017 由于贸易回升和预期中国经济好转等其他因素,外资银行对中国的风险敞口持续从2015年的低谷回升。惠誉评级预计,2017年外资银行对中国内地的贷款将继续增加,境内流 动性紧张可能进一步加强中资企业在境外借款的意愿。2017年第一季度,香港银行对中国内地的风险敞口较上一季度增长10%,与此相比,2016年全年的增长则为6%。 根据惠誉汇编的数据,2016年年底外资银行对中国的总风险敞口上升5.4%至1.669万亿美元,2015年则曾下降14%。2016年下半年的增长小幅加速,从2.4 %增至2.9%。香港银行在外资银行对中国内地的风险敞口中占比最大,截至12月底时该比例为48%,其次则为新加坡和英国,分别占比7%和6%。若将英国银行的香港子银 行对中国内地的风险敞口亦包括在计算范围内,英国的占比则为16%。 截至3月底,香港银行对中国内地的风险敞口从12月底时占整个银行系统资产的27.3%上升至29.3%。由于2015年的汇率投机类借款已经结束,香港与中国经济紧密是 现时关键的增长动力。中国母公司为其香港的子银行推荐的客户仍然是香港对内地借款人敞口增长的主要来源。惠誉也预期香港银行在内地的子银行将扩张在中国南方的零售业务。此 类子银行在中国主要城市的按揭贷款已经变得更加活跃,但由于房地产市场受地方监管收紧,其发展可能放缓。 对中资企业和其他非银行类借款人(特别是私人和非内地企业)的贷款可能继续稳步增长,部分原因是为了支持其海外扩张。截至2017年3月底,香港贷款人对中国内地的敞口中 非银行类业务占比近四分之三。 对银行的风险敞口往往比对非银行机构的波动性更大,根据第一季度数据显示,对银行的风险敞口增长25%。由于银行对中国内地风险敞口通常是以中资银行为企业风险敞口提供担 保的形式,2017年第一季度的强劲增长可能反映了贸易增速的回升。截至3月底,对银行的风险敞口在对中国内地的风险敞口中约占26%,较2016年12月底时23%的较 低水平有所升高,但仍然远低于三年前的43%。 惠誉依旧认为中国相关类风险敞口是香港银行面临的最大的资产质量风险,考虑到中国经济的高杠杆和结构性改革。尽管如此,迄今为止外资银行对中国内地的风险敞口表现较好,虽 然最新数据显示去年银行的内地风险敞口平均质量缓慢恶化。多家银行已遭受高于平均水平的中国相关类损失,并且部分银行已经缩减了其风险较高的境内中小企业贷款比例。 更多内容请参见惠誉的《中国内地风险敞口数据文件》。该报告可在<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com或点击本文上方链接获取。 联系人: Sabine Bauer 高级董事 金融机构 +852 2263 9966 惠誉国际评级有限公司 香港中环德辅道中68号 万宜大厦19楼 Eleven Li(李雪晴) 研究助理 金融机构 +86 10 8517 2136 Dan Martin 高级分析师 惠誉快讯 +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 详情参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 Related Research Mainland China Exposure Data File - June 2017 here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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