IMM specs increase bets against yen and loonie-CFTC

Mon Jan 8, 2007 9:09pm GMT 

 By Nick Olivari
 NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Currency speculators made
record bets against the Canadian dollar and increased bets
against the yen in the week to Jan. 3, moves that trimmed
overall positions against the dollar, according to data from
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
 International Money Market speculators cut their net short
dollar positions to $6.57 billion, from $11.47 billion the
prior week, according to Reuters calculations using contracts
in the yen, euro, Swiss franc, British pound, Australian and
Canadian dollars.
 Much of that move came at the expense of the yen. Total net
short yen contracts rose to 118,592 from 104,914 the prior
week.
 Being "short" a currency is effectively a bet that it will
weaken, while being "long" is a bet it will strengthen.
 Canadian dollar shorts were posted at a record 74,268
contracts.
 Investors trimmed long positions against sterling and the
euro, while bets the Australian dollar had more to rise
remained near recent levels at 88,823 contracts.
 Net longs on the Kiwi were at their highest in at least a
year at 18,352 contracts.
 Net short positions against the Swiss franc rose to their
highest since Nov. 21.
 The CFTC data on speculative positioning are often used by
analysts as an indicator of future market direction.
 Extreme net short or long positions in a currency often
suggest a reversal in price action is imminent because dealers
might be uneasy about keeping such a large position open.
 IMM data reflect non-commercial or speculative accounts.
The non-commercial positioning is of particular interest as it
provides a proxy for broader speculative activity.
 JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
          1/03/07 week         12/26/06 week
Long          54,819               55,629
Short        173,411              160,543
Net         -118,592             -104,914
 EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
          1/03/07 week         12/26/06 week
Long          98,245              100,959
Short         20,789               20,989
Net           77,456               79,970
 POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)
          1/03/07 week         12/26/06 week
Long          79,060               86,236
Short         13,903               12,392
Net           65,157               73,844
 SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
          1/03/07 week         12/26/06 week
Long          11,280               17,614
Short         34,078               29,899
Net          -22,798              -12,285
 CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
          1/03/07 week          week
Long          23,583               21,479
Short         97,851               87,773
Net          -74,268              -66,294
 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
          1/03/07 week         12/26/06 week
Long          97,410               92,051
Short          8,587                7,016
Net           88,823               85,035
 MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
          1/03/07 week         12/26/06 week
Long          83,250               62,756
Short         15,377                7,975
Net           67,873               54,781
 NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand
dollars)
          1/03/07 week         12/26/06 week
Long          19,054               18,350
Short            702                  761
Net           18,352               17,589
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