CORRECTED - POLL-TABLE-EU carbon emissions, price forecasts to 2020

(Corrects SocGen's 2009 price forecast to 17 euros from 22.6. Adds footnote
on New Carbon Finance's emissions estimates)

Feb 18 (Reuters) - Falling industrial output from the global economic
slowdown has caused European Union industrial carbon emissions to fall in 2008
and beyond, which will lead to lower demand for and cheaper price of the carbon
permits called EU Allowances (EUAs).

Following is a table showing analysts' forecasts for total carbon dioxide
emissions by companies participating in the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme in
selected years and averaged across the scheme's second phase from 2008-12 (P2)
and across the second and third phases from 2008-20 (P2+P3).

In addition, the table shows surplus or shortage (long/short) estimates for
EUAs. For a related story click on [ID:nLH373929]

ANALYST 2008 2009 2010 2012 P2 P2+3

(billion tonnes of carbon dioxide)
Barcap Emissions 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3

Long/(Short) (0.06) 0.00 0.00 (0.08) (0.04) (0.30)
Citi Emissions 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.5

Long/(Short) 0.10 0.07 0.04 (0.08) 0.05 (0.2)
Daiwa Emissions 2.12 2.04 2.04 2.04 2.10 2.10

Long/(Short) 0.04 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 (0.12)
Deutsche Bank Emissions 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1

Long/(Short) (0.07) 0.06 0.05 (0.03) 0.01 (0.05)
IDEAcarbon Emissions 2.26 2.20 2.19 2.24 2.22 N/A

Long/(Short) (0.18) (0.12) (0.11) (0.16) (0.14) N/A
New Carbon Finance Emissions 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2
(3) Long/(Short) 0.01 (0.06) (0.04) (0.12) (0.05) (0.12)
Point Carbon (1) Emissions 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 N/A

Long/(Short) (0.16) (0.06) (0.04) (0.06) (0.05) N/A
Sagacarbon Emissions 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 N/A

Long/Short 0.05 0.10 0.05 (0.10) 0.06 N/A
SocGen Emissions 2.13 2.06 2.13 2.18 2.13 2.12

Long/(Short) (0.05) 0.02 (0.06) (0.14) (0.07) (0.22)
UBS Emissions 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3

Long/(Short) (0.15) (0.14) (0.14) (0.10) (0.13) (0.24)

PRICE ESTIMATES (in euros per tonne) 2009 2012
Barcap 9 20.5
Citi 12 25
Daiwa 8 12
Deutsche Bank 30 (2) N/A
IDEAcarbon N/A N/A
New Carbon Finance N/A N/A
Point Carbon 12 35
Sagacarbon 10 26
SocGen 17 20
UBS N/A 35

(1) Point Carbon's figures include EU-27 + Norway
(2) Deutsche Bank's EUA price forecast represents the fundamental fair value
based on a rational and efficient market, but the analyst expects 2009 prices to
trade below 10 euros a tonne.
(3) New Carbon Finance's figures include EU-27, Norway and Liechtenstein as
well as aviation from 2012.
(Compiled by Nina Chestney and Michael Szabo, editing by Anthony Barker)