POLL-India's Feb industrial output seen down 1 pct y/y

* What: India's February industrial output

* When: Thursday, April 9, about noon (0630 GMT)

* Forecast: Expected to contract 1.0 percent from a year
ago

NEW DELHI, April 7 (Reuters) - India's industrial output is
forecast to have contracted in February by 1 percent from a
year earlier, a fourth fall in five months as the global
downturn and waning domestic demand sees factories cut
production.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts was
for an annual fall of 1 percent in the index of industrial
production (IIP) INIP=ECI in February, sharper than January's
decline of 0.5 percent as exports fell by more than a fifth.

Economists expect output to remain subdued despite a series
of stimulus measures, and it could be months before a revival
is visible. They forecast economic growth to fall to a
seven-year low below 6 percent in the fiscal year that started
on April 1.

"We are still at the bottom. We will move up from second
half of 2009/10 fiscal year," said D.K. Joshi, principal
economist at domestic rating agency Crisil.

Factory output slowed markedly in 2008 as high borrowing
costs and later a credit crunch forced firms to delay expansion
plans and then cut output as demand for goods fell. In October,
industrial output contracted for the first time in 13 years.

The ABN AMRO Bank purchasing managers' index INPMI=ECI
showed manufacturing shrank for a fourth straight month in
February.

Since October, the central bank has aggressively cut its
key lending rate by 400 basis points to its lowest level since
2000, and the government has cut duties and increased spending
to protect growth and jobs.

"The cut in interest rates and the stimulus impact will
start showing up. The growth in infrastructure industries is
also not too bad," said N.R. Bhanumurthy, an economist with
independent think-tank Institute for Economic Growth.

Last week, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the economy
could have grown less than 7 percent in 2008/09, slowing
sharply from a scorching 9 percent or more in the previous
three years.

Forecasts for February industrial output:

(Percentage change from a year earlier)
-----------------------------------------------------
RESPONDENTS FORECAST
-----------------------------------------------------
Institute for Economic Growth +1.3
Bank of Baroda -0.2
IDBI Gilts -0.5
Yes Bank -0.8
Nomura Securities -0.9
Reliance Equities -1.0
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy -1.2
Anand Rathi Securities -1.8
Indicus Analytics -2.0
Crisil -2.2
-----------------------------------------------------
Median -1.0
Average -0.9
Highest +1.3
Lowest -2.2
-----------------------------------------------------
(Reporting by Rajkumar Ray and Surojit Gupta)
(Additional reporting by Anurag Joshi and Jeanette Rodrigues
in MUMBAI; Editing by John Mair)