FACTBOX: Is the global financial crisis over?
(Reuters) - Hints of stabilization in the U.S. economy have given rise to differing views on how soon a recession might end.
Here is a snapshot of what various policymakers and political leaders have said:
MANMOHAN SINGH:
Indian Prime Minister said on April 19 in Amingaon, India, that the Indian economy will return to growth rates of 8-9 percent as the global economy begins to recover from September.
-- "The world economy is expected to partially recover by September and if that happens we expect to go back to the growth rate of 8-9 percent."
JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHET:
European Central Bank President said on April 17 in Tokyo:
-- "2009 will be a very difficult year. When you look at all the incoming information, I am not surprised. Somewhere along 2010 we will see recovery. We have lower prices for commodities and oil, which are both disinflationary and expansionary. We have technology that continues to push on, and the potential of the emerging world is fantastic. The recovery all depends on us, and confidence is the key."
LORENZO BINI SMAGHI
ECB Executive Board member said in an interview published on April 20 that he expected a gradual recovery to start in 2010.
-- "This time (the recovery) will be ... very gradual."
VITOR CONSTANCIO
European Central Bank Governing Council member said on April 7 in Lisbon:
-- "Although the recovery can start in 2010, it will be a modest recovery. The financial crisis we are going through ... this kind of recession does not allow to expect a quick recovery. It will be moderate and it won't be V-shaped."
DOMINIQUE STRAUSS-KAHN:
Managing Director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in an interview published on April 19:
-- "We are not yet over the mountain. The IMF expects that a recovery will set in during the first half of 2010."
JOAQUIN ALMUNIA
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner said on April 7 in Berlin:
-- "All in all, I am confident that with all these (stimulus) measures ... we can start seeing a recovery, a gradual, next year."
SERGEI IGNATYEV:
Head of the Russian central bank said on April 3 in Moscow:
-- "I believe the sharpest phase of the crisis is behind us. I think that as soon as in the coming months the economy will resume growing modestly,"
ROBERT ZOELLICK:
World Bank President said on March 31 at a newsmaker event at Thomson Reuters' London office:
-- "Everyone needs to approach this crisis with a healthy dose of humility because we've seen surprises, we still face high uncertainty," he said. "It remains a dangerous year in terms of downside risks."
-- "If the U.S. can follow through on its banking programme - there is a reasonable chance that you will start growth in the U.S. first. Whether it is 2009 or 2010 is a little bit hard for me to tell."
GARY STERN:
Minneapolis Fed President:
Stern told the Economic Club of Minnesota at the end of March that at least a mild recovery could take hold by mid-year before healthier growth kicks in during 2010.
-- "Many pieces are now in place to contribute to improvement in financial market conditions and in business activity. There is reason to think that improvement is not too far off."
U.S. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA:
Obama said in the opening statement of his second prime-time White House news conference on March 25 since he took office.
-- "We will recover from this recession. But it will take time, it will take patience. We've put in place a comprehensive strategy designed to attack this crisis on all fronts. It's a strategy to create jobs, to help responsible homeowners, to restart lending, and to grow our economy over the long-term. And we are beginning to see signs of progress."
BEN BERNANKE:
Federal Reserve Chairman said in an interview with CBS programme "60 minutes" on March 15:
-- "We'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year," Bernanke said. "We'll see recovery beginning next year."
The Fed chairman said his greatest worry is that lawmakers and the public will withdraw support for efforts aimed at stabilising the shattered banking system.
-- "The biggest risk is that, you know, we don't have the political will," he said. "We don't have the commitment to solve this problem, and that we let it just continue. In which case ... we can't count on recovery."
(Compiled by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit; Additional writing by Jijo Jacob; Editing by Victoria Main)
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