BANK VIEW-Commodity and energy price forecasts for 2010
Dec 14 (Reuters) - The following is a round up of key 2010 commodity price forecasts from major commercial and investment banks.
For a look at bank's strategies for commodities in 2010, please see [ID:nSP390566]
For a look at global money flows and investment strategy, please see [ID:nINVEST] CRUDE OIL JP Morgan - Weak refinery demand, inventory reduction keep pressure on prices, with $72/barrel seen for Q1. But $85 is predicted for Q4 based on economic growth, falling inventories and weak dollar. Bank of America - Expects oil to average $85 a barrel through 2010, versus previous forecast of $75. Sees growing risk of a spike above $100/barrel by 2011 from a combination of loose monetary policy and dollar depreciation. Tightening physical oil supply and demand fundamentals in 2010 could also prop prices. GOLD JP Morgan - No reason to believe the rally is about to end soon, other than seeing significant volatility at times. Sees $1,400/ounce for second quarter and $1,200 for Q4. Bank of America - Sees prices averaging $1,100 per ounce through 2010, although does not rule a spike to $1,500 levels if oil crosses $100 a barrel. Expects sovereign risk fears and bullion demand from central banks to be key support. For more gold forecasts, please see [ID:nGEE5B61SZ] COPPER JP Morgan - High levels of global liquidity seen propelling prices to peak of $8,000/tonne in Q2, before prices moderate to $6,250 by the end of year. Expect an average copper price of $7,100. Bank of America - Sees copper averaging $7,125 per tonne, or $3.23 a lb, in 2010 and $8,000 tonne in 2011. Annual treatment and refining charges of copper are expected to fall to around $45 per tonne, or 4.5 cents a lb, by close of 2010 -- versus current levels of $75/tonne or 7.5 cents/lb -- due to tight copper concentrate supplies. CORN JP Morgan - Prices should rise amid increased biofuel demand and declining inventories throughout the period. Sees $4.40/bushel for Q2, and $4.10 in Q4. SOYBEANS JP Morgan - Peaking at $10/bushel in Q1. Although larger corn demand will in turn result in less US soybean production, price upside for soybeans is limited amid increasingly large South American production and exports. Sees $9.20 by year end.
(Compiled by Alden Bentley and Barani Krishnan; Edited by Lisa Shumaker)
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