BANK VIEW-Commodity and energy price forecasts for 2010

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Mon Dec 14, 2009 8:56pm GMT

 Dec 14 (Reuters) - The following is a round up of key 2010
commodity price forecasts from major commercial and investment
banks.
 For a look at bank's strategies for commodities in 2010,
please see [ID:nSP390566]
 For a look at global money flows and investment strategy,
please see [ID:nINVEST]
CRUDE OIL
JP Morgan - Weak refinery demand, inventory reduction keep
pressure on prices, with $72/barrel seen for Q1. But $85 is
predicted for Q4 based on economic growth, falling inventories
and weak dollar.
Bank of America - Expects oil to average $85 a barrel through
2010, versus previous forecast of $75. Sees growing risk of a
spike above $100/barrel by 2011 from a combination of loose
monetary policy and dollar depreciation. Tightening physical
oil supply and demand fundamentals in 2010 could also prop
prices.
GOLD
JP Morgan - No reason to believe the rally is about to end
soon, other than seeing significant volatility at times. Sees
$1,400/ounce for second quarter and $1,200 for Q4.
Bank of America - Sees prices averaging $1,100 per ounce
through 2010, although does not rule a spike to $1,500 levels
if oil crosses $100 a barrel. Expects sovereign risk fears and
bullion demand from central banks to be key support.
For more gold forecasts, please see [ID:nGEE5B61SZ]
COPPER
JP Morgan - High levels of global liquidity seen propelling
prices to peak of $8,000/tonne in Q2, before prices moderate to
$6,250 by the end of year. Expect an average copper price of
$7,100.
Bank of America - Sees copper averaging $7,125 per tonne, or
$3.23 a lb, in 2010 and $8,000 tonne in 2011. Annual treatment
and refining charges of copper are expected to fall to around
$45 per tonne, or 4.5 cents a lb, by close of 2010 -- versus
current levels of $75/tonne or 7.5 cents/lb -- due to tight
copper concentrate supplies.
CORN
JP Morgan - Prices should rise amid increased biofuel demand
and declining inventories throughout the period. Sees
$4.40/bushel for Q2, and $4.10 in Q4.
SOYBEANS
JP Morgan - Peaking at $10/bushel in Q1. Although larger corn
demand will in turn result in less US soybean production, price
upside for soybeans is limited amid increasingly large South
American production and exports. Sees $9.20 by year end.
 (Compiled by Alden Bentley and Barani Krishnan; Edited by
Lisa Shumaker)


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