EU carbon prices up as cold weather snap continues

Mon Jan 11, 2010 8:29am GMT

* Lasting cold weather fuels energy, carbon permit demand

* Deutsche Bank cuts emissions forecasts for 2009-2012

LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - European Union carbon emissions futures rose on Monday, as a cold weather snap across Europe continued, supporting demand for emissions permits.

The benchmark contract for EU Allowances CFI2Zc1 rose 4 cents or 0.31 percent to 13.04 euros ($18.67) a tonne at 0802 GMT, after touching an intra-day high of 13.19 euros in the first hour of trade. Volume was light at 634 lots.

"High energy demand seems to be supporting carbon prices a little," an emissions trader said.

If the cold weather lasts into next week and energy demand remains high, prices could break a key resistance level of 13.55 euros, another trader said.

Deutsche Bank analyst Mark C. Lewis cut his emissions forecasts for 2009 to 2012 by 70 million tonnes to 1,900 million tonnes to take into account a weaker economy in the second half of 2009 than previously estimated.

The second phase of the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme (2008-2012) will be long by 260 million EUAs compared to 115 million in previous estimates, the analyst said in a note on Monday.

Lewis expects some industrial selling over the next month to push prices down in the short-term, recovering to around 15-16 euros a tonne by the third quarter.

"We would not expect prices to come under anything like the same pressure as witnessed over the same period last year," he said, referring to last February when industrial selling caused prices to slump to around 8 euros.

Industrial companies are thought to be holding a substantial number of spare EUAs because economic slowdown reduced their output considerably last year and there was less need to cover their emissions.

German Calendar 2011 baseload power BY1DE-1Y was up 55 cents or 1.06 percent at 52.20 euros per megawatt hour.

British natural gas for February delivery GM2NBG0 was up 0.85 percent at 35.70 pence per therm.

Certified emissions reductions CEREZ0 were unchanged from the previous close at 11.40 euros a tonne. (Reporting by Nina Chestney; Editing by Keiron Henderson)

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