UPDATE 3-Kodak says sales may grow, but stock tumbles

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Thu Feb 4, 2010 6:36pm GMT

* Kodak sees 2010 revenue flat to up after 2009 drop

* Sees strength in digital, printing businesses

* Sees 2010 oper of $50 mln loss to $50 mln profit

* Shares fall 10 pct after 61 percent jump in past month

* Concerns about delayed profitability (Recasts first paragraph with stock movement; adds comments from investor meeting, byline)

By Franklin Paul

NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Eastman Kodak Co EK.N sees a possible return to sales growth in 2010, as its digital printing and licensing businesses improve, but investors appeared concerned about the slow path to profitability, and its shares fell 10 percent.

At its annual investor meeting on Thursday, Kodak, which has been shifting its focus to digital products and services as demand for traditional cameras and film slip, said it expects digital revenue growth of 5 percent to 9 percent for the year. Overall revenue is seen flat to up 1 percent.

That would be a vast improvement from 2009, when the company's revenue fell 19 percent to $7.6 billion. Kodak's 2010 outlook of $7.5 billion to $7.7 billion compares with analysts' view of $7.65 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Despite the company's optimism, Kodak shares buckled after rising 61 percent over the past month. Kodak shares were down 69 cents to $6.14 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

The company's plans are long-term in nature, and may not produce a profit in 2010. Its last annual profit was in 2004, the year it began an expensive four-year restructuring that transformed it into a maker of digital photography products and printers. During the shift, it halved its workforce, and has since stopped its dividend.

Kodak's expectations for the year range from a loss from continuing operations of $50 million to a profit of $50 million.

At the meeting, which was broadcast over the Internet, some participants asked about the perception that lucrative patent licensing deals are driving Kodak's financial recent strength -- a notion the company has dismissed as off base.

One attendee pressed Kodak executives on when they will make a profit.

"You have a very large revenue base... and several years to adapt to the new reality of your business. If you adjust (for patents) you really earn very little money as a company," said the man. "What are the factors inhibiting a realistic level of earnings? Why are we not earning money?"

Kodak Chief Executive Antonio Perez said the company's financial health would still be improving even if recent intellectual property licensing deals were excluded.

"We are making very significant progress in generating cash and earnings with our digital products," said Perez. We are making a lot of improvement in the money that we are making."

The outlook was delivered one week after Kodak posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, in a report that showed the strength of its patent licensing and consumer inkjet printer sales. But is also showed that traditional film and printer paper revenue -- still a large part of the total -- continues to slip.

In October, the company said it sees licensing revenue averaging at least $250 million to $350 million each year for the next several years. Kodak will reap another $450 million this year from Samsung alone, under their licensing agreement.

Ink revenue should more than double this year, Kodak said on Thursday, providing a significant boost to digital sales, and the company is expanding into the market for small offices and will offer personalized printing services, such as catalogs.

Other new initiatives include providing souvenir imaging services at theme parks and using its expertise with specialty chemicals to make dyes and inks for the fragrance market.

It added that it sees stable performance and a continued solid cash contribution from its movie industry segment and moderation in the decline rate across its traditional film product lines.

Kodak said it sees sales in its traditional segment, which includes film, paper and movies, falling 14 percent to 18 percent in 2010 after shrinking 24 percent in 2009.

It sees total revenue in 2012 of $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion, with digital systems delivering up to $7.0 billion. (Reporting by Franklin Paul, editing by Maureen Bavdek, Gerald E. McCormick and Tim Dobbyn)

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