STOCKS NEWS EUROPE-Fat tail risk seen low for Dow, FTSE

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Thu Feb 25, 2010 2:46pm GMT

Fat tail risk, a gauge of low probability events, is low for the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average .DJI and Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE, as investors have priced in some of the uncertainties, including Greek debt problems, New York-based FinAnalytica says.

"The tail-thickness is not significant for either the Dow and the FTSE while the volatility has increased which most probably reflects the increased cautiousness of the markets under which they price in the risk premium of several unknowns, i.e. Greece difficulties," it says in a note.

"Unless we see an increase in the fat tail indicator, the potential for a series of large losses together in a timeframe of a month is less probable."

FinAnalytica uses statistical models to predict market cataclysms.

Reuters Messaging rm://dominic.lau.reuters.com@reuters.net

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