Higher UK GDP fails to revive embattled sterling

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Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:40pm GMT

* Sterling hits 9-month low vs dlr of $1.5152 GBP=D4

* Pound on track for 4.5 percent decline on month vs dlr

* UK Q4 GDP revised up to 0.3 percent q/q

* Sterling seen pressured; BoE meeting eyed

By Tamawa Desai

LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Sterling fell broadly on Friday as an upward revision to UK economic growth failed to buoy a currency hurt by woes including a tepid economy, high public debt and political uncertainty.

Such concerns were unlikely to go away anytime soon, keeping the pound on the back foot, analysts said.

Sentiment was also dampened after the Bank of England said this week it stood ready to revive its asset buying scheme if economic conditions warranted, though no change is expected at a policy meeting next week.

The pound, which has fallen nearly 6 percent against the dollar since the start of the year, was on track for its worst monthly performance since December 2008.

Data on Friday showed fourth quarter UK gross domestic was revised up to 0.3 percent from an initial 0.1 percent. However, the year-on-year contraction was revised down to 3.3 percent from 3.2 percent. [ID:nONS004824]

"Sterling's gains rapidly evaporated as it became apparent that downward revisions to earlier quarters' figures left the level of activity exactly unchanged from the provisional estimate and therefore weaker than expected," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Separate data showed UK house prices unexpectedly fell in February, ending a run of nine consecutive monthly increases, a survey by UK building society Nationwide showed. [ID:nLAG006127]

Sterling hit a nine-month low of $1.5152, paring gains from a session high of $1.5327 hit shortly after the GDP data. By 1607 GMT, it was down 0.2 percent at $1.5231 GBP=D4.

"Sterling will remain weak as nothing fundamentally has changed. These (GDP) figures merely confirm that the economy is fairly weak at the moment and the pound will be susceptible to structural weaknesses in the UK economy," said CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson.

Finance minister Alistair Darling said after the GDP data there were still big risks and support for the economy could not be withdrawn yet.

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The pound slipped to a six-week low against the euro of 89.73 pence EURGBP=D4, down 0.8 percent on the day. The pair was on track for its biggest monthly gain since September 2009.

Trade-weighted sterling hit a four-month low of 77.9 =GBP.

The pound also hit a 11-month low against the yen of 134.68 yen GBPJPY=R.

In addition to the prospect of more monetary easing, the pound was seen suffering from the ballooning UK budget deficit.

Opinion polls show there is a strong chance of a hung parliament when Britain goes to the polls widely expected on May 6, fuelling worries that attempts to tackle the country's spiralling deficit will be stymied.

"There are multiple factors weighing against sterling, in particular the fiscal situation and the prospect of a hung parliament in the UK. We expect the pound to remain under selling pressure," Bank of New York Mellon currency strategist Neil Mellor said.

The government on Friday dampened speculation an election announcement was imminent by saying Prime Minister Gordon Brown was not planning to meet the queen this weekend, as law would require. [ID:nLDE61P1F2]

Speculation Brown could be tempted to call a slightly early election has emerged because the economy is returning to growth and the ruling Labour Party has improved its ratings in polls.

Manufacturing and services activity, consumer credit and wholesale price data are due next week. (Additional reporting by Neal Armstrong; editing by Nigel Stephenson)

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