Venezuela's Capriles faces uphill battle against Chavez

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan opposition flagbearer Henrique Capriles could give President Hugo Chavez the closest race of his career, though the socialist leader's charisma and deep pockets provide formidable advantages as he seeks re-election in October.

With a polished smile and energetic style, the 39-year-old Capriles plans to criss-cross Venezuela from Monday galvanizing supporters and trying to win over wavering Chavez sympathizers.

An accumulation of problems during 13 years of Chavez's self-styled socialist revolution - such as crime, unemployment and inflation - make 2012 the best moment yet to challenge the former soldier.

Yet Chavez retains the upper hand thanks to seemingly inexhaustible popularity among the poor and a flood of social spending financed by the OPEC member's vast oil wealth.

That means the center-left Capriles, a state governor, will have to build momentum from Sunday's victory to win over the roughly third of Venezuelan voters who remain undecided.

His aides know he needs a dynamite campaign that projects a modern political vision in contrast to Chavez's militaristic confrontation, seemingly capricious state takeovers and involvement in far-flung diplomatic disputes.

"I don't want to be the leader of the world, I want to be the leader of Venezuela," Capriles told a roaring crowd at his victory rally, pointedly trying to show a difference with Chavez and his fiercely anti-U.S. global ambitions.

OPPOSITION UNITY

A priority for Capriles will be maintaining unity in a historically unruly opposition that has failed to oust Chavez via the ballot box or street protests. Public bearhugs with the four candidates he defeated at the weekend was a good start.

The opposition's ranks range from a newly-dominant young wing embodied by Capriles seeking to win over voters in Chavez strongholds, to upper-crust blue-bloods preferring to openly confront the president as a dictator.

Capriles' strength lies in promising change from an administration that has let Venezuela become more dangerous than some war zones, spurred one of the world's highest inflation rates, and left it suffering from shortages of basic products such as cooking oil and milk.

Though Chavez appears to have recovered from cancer surgery last year, a sudden relapse in his health would probably also work in Capriles' favor.

Recent polls show Chavez, 57, would beat Capriles by more than 20 percentage points, but that lead is likely to decline as Capriles starts his presidential campaign and the four losing opposition candidates line up behind him.

Capriles has cautiously avoided direct attacks on Chavez, vowed to leave in place the social "missions" the president has created since 2003, and promised to avoid quickly removing regulations such as currency controls.

"He has shown great managerial ability," said supporter Carlos Luis Meza, 32, a lawyer, in reference to Capriles' widely-praised governorship of Miranda state.

So far, Capriles' campaign has relied on vague promises to improve security and create jobs: Venezuelans' top two concerns.

If he won, his government would likely be staffed by a combination of allied opposition leaders and technocrats who would begin slowly enacting the measures that economists have been urging for a decade.

But these measures are precisely the ones that are most unpopular with voters, and therefore are unlikely to form an explicit part of Capriles' platform. His campaign, built around the slogan "There is a path," has in fact been more defined by what it will not do than what it will.

CHAVEZ'S STRENGTH

This contrasts with Chavez's clearly defined nationalist agenda that builds on Venezuelans' historical resentment of U.S. influence and a predominant mistrust of free markets.

"They represent the bourgeoisie, the Yankees," Chavez said in a recent speech about the opposition. "I am the fatherland."

Chavez and his supporters have won more than 10 elections since he took office in 1999 thanks in large part to a state-backed voter mobilization machinery capable of getting supporters from hillside slums and rural towns to the polls.

State media commentators immediately went after Capriles, saying he was the candidate of a wealthy elite who did not represent Venezuelans. Capriles aides expect a dirty campaign against him, with old charges he whipped up a riot outside the Cuban Embassy in 2002 likely to surface again.

"Capriles has people behind him, no doubt," said diehard Chavez supporter Eriberto Hurtado in a poor neighborhood of Caracas. "But he has a past and we will show his dirty laundry."

With an approval rating near 60 percent in recent polls, Chavez has already been on the campaign trail for months.

From ribbon-cutting ceremonies at new apartment complexes to a recording-breaking 9 1/2-hour speech to Congress, he has used nearly every public appearance to remind voters of government programs offering houses, pensions and jobs.

"Our view remains that Chavez is favored to win as support for him rises on the back of a recovering economy driven by massive fiscal spending," said political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

(Additional reporting by Andrew Cawthorne and Deisy Buitrago, Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Kieran Murray)