US natgas futures slip 2 pct from 3-week spot high
* Front month slips from highest mark since late May
* Hotter weather on tap in six to 10-day outlooks
* Recent storage builds falling well below average
* Coming Up: API oil data Tuesday, EIA oil data Wednesday
By Eileen Houlihan
NEW YORK, June 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2 percent early Tuesday, as traders likely took profits after Monday's nearly 7 percent run up to a three-week spot chart high.
With hotter weather on tap for consuming regions of the nation, a stir in tropical activity and the recent trend in storage builds falling below average for the past eight out of nine weeks, traders did not expect much downside.
Front-month July natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were at $2.586 per million British thermal units in early trading, down 4.9 cents, or just under 2 percent.
The contract rose as high as $2.671 in electronic trade, the highest mark for a front month contract since late May.
Futures hit a 3-1/2-month high of $2.759 in mid-May, but many traders said the jump removed gas from favor over coal for power generation.
But since posting a 10-year low of $1.902 twice in late April, nearby futures are up about 37 percent on signs that record production was finally slowing and demand picking up as more electric utilities switched from coal to gas.
LIGHT BUILD BUT STORAGE STILL AT RECORD
Last week's gas storage report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed total domestic gas inventories rose by 67 billion cubic feet to 2.944 trillion cubic feet.
The build fell short of a Reuters poll estimate of 74 bcf and came in well below last year's gain of 72 bcf and the five-year average increase for that week of 88 bcf.
Lagging stock builds this spring matched or fell below seasonal norms in eight out of the past nine weeks, raising expectations that record-high storage can be trimmed to more manageable levels in the 22 weeks left before winter withdrawals begin.
The weekly build trimmed the surplus to last year to 32 percent above the same week in 2011 and sliced the excess versus the five-year average to 29 percent.
(Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s)
Concerns remain that the storage glut will drive prices lower this summer as storage caverns fill. Inventories stand at 72 percent full, with producing-region stocks at 82 percent of capacity.
The storage surplus to last year will have to be cut by at least another 460 bcf to avoid breaching the government's 4.1-tcf estimate of capacity. Stocks peaked last year in November at a record high of 3.852 tcf.
The EIA last week said it expected gas storage to climb to a record 4.015 tcf by the end of October.
Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 47 bcf to 70 bcf versus last year's adjusted build of 90 bcf and a five-year average increase for that week of 87 bcf.
PRODUCTION GROWTH SLOWING, STILL RECORD OUTPUT
The EIA last week also trimmed its estimates for domestic natural gas production and consumption growth in 2012.
Gas demand picked up sharply this year as spring prices hit 10-year lows, prompting some electric utilities to switch from coal to cheaper gas for power generation.
EIA expects 2012 marketed gas production to average a record high 68.47 bcf per day, up 3.4 percent from last year. But demand in 2012, driven by strong gains in the electric power sector, was expected to rise 4.1 percent.
Baker Hughes data on Friday showed the gas-directed rig count fell to 562, its seventh drop in eight weeks and the lowest level in nearly 13 years.
(Graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s)
The 40 percent drop in dry gas drilling in the last eight months has raised expectations that producers were finally getting serious about slowing record supplies.
The shift away from dry gas to higher-value shale oil and shale gas liquid plays still produces plenty of associated gas that ends up in the market after processing. That has slowed the overall drop in dry gas output.
Traders noted recent declines in dry gas drilling and planned output cuts by several producers seemed to be taking a modest toll on gas production, but analysts say cuts so far of about 1 bcf per day were not enough to significantly reduce supplies.
MORE FUNDAMENTALS
The National Weather Service's six to 10-day outlook issued on Monday called for above-normal readings for most of the nation, with below-normal readings along the West Coast, in South Texas and in New England.
Nuclear power plant outages were running at about 9,700 megawatts, or 10 percent, on Tuesday, up from 8,600 MW out a year ago and a five-year outage rate of just 6,100 MW.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center was monitoring a low-pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea with a 10 percent chance of further development over the next 48 hours. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. (Reporting by Eileen Houlihan;editing by Sofina Mirza-Reid)
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