US natgas futures slip 2 pct from 3-week spot high

Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:21pm BST

 * Front month slips from highest mark since late May
 * Hotter weather on tap in six to 10-day outlooks
 * Recent storage builds falling well below average
 * Coming Up: API oil data Tuesday, EIA oil data Wednesday
 By Eileen Houlihan
 NEW YORK, June 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid
about 2 percent early Tuesday, as traders likely took profits
after Monday's nearly 7 percent run up to a three-week spot
chart high.
 With hotter weather on tap for consuming regions of the
nation, a stir in tropical activity and the recent trend in
storage builds falling below average for the past eight out of
nine weeks, traders did not expect much downside.
 Front-month July natural gas futures on the New York
Mercantile Exchange were at $2.586 per million British
thermal units in early trading, down 4.9 cents, or just under 2
percent.
 The contract rose as high as $2.671 in electronic trade, the
highest mark for a front month contract since late May.
 Futures hit a 3-1/2-month high of $2.759 in mid-May, but
many traders said the jump removed gas from favor over coal for
power generation. 
 But since posting a 10-year low of $1.902 twice in late
April, nearby futures are up about 37 percent on signs that
record production was finally slowing and demand picking up as
more electric utilities switched from coal to gas.
 
 LIGHT BUILD BUT STORAGE STILL AT RECORD
 Last week's gas storage report from the U.S. Energy
Information Administration showed total domestic gas inventories
rose by 67 billion cubic feet to 2.944 trillion cubic feet.
 
 The build fell short of a Reuters poll estimate of 74 bcf
and came in well below last year's gain of 72 bcf and the
five-year average increase for that week of 88 bcf.
 Lagging stock builds this spring matched or fell below
seasonal norms in eight out of the past nine weeks, raising
expectations that record-high storage can be trimmed to more
manageable levels in the 22 weeks left before winter withdrawals
begin.
 The weekly build trimmed the surplus to last year to 32
percent above the same week in 2011 and sliced the excess versus
the five-year average to 29 percent.    
 (Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s) 
 Concerns remain that the storage glut will drive prices
lower this summer as storage caverns fill. Inventories stand at
72 percent full, with producing-region stocks at 82 percent of
capacity.
 The storage surplus to last year will have to be cut by at
least another 460 bcf to avoid breaching the government's
4.1-tcf estimate of capacity. Stocks peaked last year in
November at a record high of 3.852 tcf.
 The EIA last week said it expected gas storage to climb to a
record 4.015 tcf by the end of October.
 Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range
from 47 bcf to 70 bcf versus last year's adjusted build of 90
bcf and a five-year average increase for that week of 87 bcf.
     
 PRODUCTION GROWTH SLOWING, STILL RECORD OUTPUT
 The EIA last week also trimmed its estimates for domestic
natural gas production and consumption growth in 2012.
 Gas demand picked up sharply this year as spring prices hit
10-year lows, prompting some electric utilities to switch from
coal to cheaper gas for power generation.
 EIA expects 2012 marketed gas production to average a record
high 68.47 bcf per day, up 3.4 percent from last year. But
demand in 2012, driven by strong gains in the electric power
sector, was expected to rise 4.1 percent. 
 Baker Hughes data on Friday showed  the gas-directed rig
count fell to 562, its seventh drop in eight weeks and the
lowest level in nearly 13 years. 
 (Graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s)
 The 40 percent drop in dry gas drilling in the last eight
months has raised expectations that producers were finally
getting serious about slowing record supplies. 
 The shift away from dry gas to higher-value shale oil and
shale gas liquid plays still produces plenty of associated gas
that ends up in the market after processing. That has slowed the
overall drop in dry gas output.
 Traders noted recent declines in dry gas drilling and
planned output cuts by several producers seemed to be taking a
modest toll on gas production, but analysts say cuts so far of
about 1 bcf per day were not enough to significantly reduce
supplies.
 
 MORE FUNDAMENTALS
 The National Weather Service's six to 10-day outlook issued
on Monday called for above-normal readings for most of the
nation, with below-normal readings along the West Coast, in
South Texas and in New England.
 Nuclear power plant outages were running at about 9,700
megawatts, or 10 percent, on Tuesday, up from 8,600 MW out a
year ago and a five-year outage rate of just 6,100 MW.
 
 The U.S. National Hurricane Center was monitoring a
low-pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea with a
10 percent chance of further development over the next 48 hours.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
 

 (Reporting by Eileen Houlihan;editing by Sofina Mirza-Reid)
 
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