UPDATE 2-Ecuador sees oil at $80 per barrel over 6 months

Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:09pm BST

 * Oil prices could rise if OPEC quotas are met-Pastor
 * Minister says low chances of becoming OPEC head

 (Adds comments from oil minister, details)
 By Eduardo Garcia
 QUITO, June 26 (Reuters) - Ecuador's Oil Minister Wilson
Pastor expects global crude prices to h over at a round $ 80 per
barrel over the next six months, b ut he told a state-run website
on Tue sday they could move toward $90 per barrel if OPEC members
comply with output quotas. 
 Crude is down from a March peak of $128 per barrel partly
because the economic outlook has darkened, but also because
OPEC's top producer Saudi Arabia ha s responded to pressure from
consumers by opening the taps to a 30-year high of 10 million
bpd. 
 "In the next six months the price will probably move around
$80 per barrel," Pastor said in an interview s treamed live o n
th e El Ciudadano website.
 OPEC's reference basket price has also been falling sharply
in recent months. It rose slightly to $88.92 a barrel on Monday,
from $88.74 during the previous session. [ID:nL 6E8HQ1IM]
 The two types of crude produced in Ecuador - Napo and
Oriente - are trading at $83 per barrel, down from an average of
$102 per barrel in the first five or six months of the year,
P astor said.
 "The outlook for next year is not clear. Our forecast is
that prices will stay at current levels, at least for a while,"
Pastor said, adding that in the medium term, oi l prices would
depend on the state of the global economy and the willingness of
OPEC members to comply with output quotas. 
 OPEC agreed at a meeting in Vienna earlier this month to
keep its collective output ceiling unchanged for the second half
of the year at 30 million bpd. The move implies a supply cut of
1.6 million bpd.
 Several OPEC members had urged Saudi Arabia to trim its
excess supply to the agreed limit as a way to shore up prices.
However, Saudi Arabia is showing no sign of changing its policy
of high output. 
 "You can see that there's oversupply. OPEC has the capacity,
or at least some countries have the capacity, to boost prices.
By reducing supply ... they could put prices at between $80 and
$90 (per barrel) as we hope for in OPEC," Pastor said.
 He also said he was aware that his chances of becoming
OPEC's next secretary-general were low. 
 Ecuador has nominated Pastor for the job, and he will
compete with candidates from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia to
replace the group's current head, Abdullah al-Badri, who
finishes his term at the end of this year. 
 "Ecuador is not a big player. We don't have high hopes, but
the most important thing is that Ecuador has a candidate," he
said. Ecuador is OPEC's smallest producer, pumping about 500,000
bpd, and does not have a lot of say on th e cartel's po licy.

 (Editing by Daniel Wallis, Alden Bentley and Richard Chang)
 
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