COMMODITIES-"Sell the fact" douses rally as central banks ease

Thu Jul 5, 2012 10:10pm BST

 * Copper, gold retreat on firmer dollar
 * Brent crude oil gains on Norway labor troubles
 * Corn, soybeans add to rally on more sizzling weather

 (New throughout, updates prices, market activity)
 By Eric Onstad and Jonathan Leff
 LONDON/NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) - Commodities failed to
get a boost on Thursday from efforts by the central banks of the
UK, Europe and China to prop up flagging growth, with copper and
gold sliding as the dollar spiked against the euro.
 Despite the economic fears, energy and grain markets rose on
fundamentals specific to those markets. Crude oil rose due to
fears that a labor lockout in Norway could hurt crude supply,
while grains surged on worries that a severe drought in the U.S.
Midwest could damage crops.
 The 19-commodity Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index 
eked out a small gain of 0.2 percent to 293.26, due largely to
the strong gains in oil and grains. But investors did not keep
up the heavy buying that had fueled the CRB's 7.7 percent
advance over the past three days, one of the biggest,
broad-based commodity sector rallies on record.
 "You are getting a very strong 'sell the fact' move off
these global rate moves this morning," said Mike Guido, managing
director of hedge fund sales and energy markets at Macquarie in
New York.
 U.S. corn jumped 5 percent, pulling soybeans and wheat
higher too as weather forecasts saw no relief from the worst
Midwest drought in a quarter-century. Benchmark Brent crude rose
above $100 a barrel, posting its highest settlement since the
end of May on fears about supply from Norway.
 Commodities had slumped in the second quarter as fears
deepened about Euro zone debt and shaky economic conditions. The
three-day rally to start the third quarter came on the view that
commodities would rebound more quickly than other assets as
central banks rolled out new stimulus measures.
 Commodities got an early boost on Thursday from on a
surprise rate cut from China, its second in two months, but
prices ebbed after the European Central Bank trimmed its main
refinancing rate by a quarter point but declined to resume a
bond-buying program.  
 The euro slumped to a one-month low against the
dollar, and the U.S. unit strengthened against a basket of
currencies, increasing the cost of commodities priced in
dollars to investors in other currencies.
 Attention now shifts to Friday's U.S. jobs report, expected
to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 90,000 in June after May's
69,000 gain. Data on Thursday showing U.S private employers
stepped up hiring and jobless claims fell by the most in two
months offered some hope for a brighter outlook. 
 China's second rate cut in two months sliced its benchmark
lending rate 31 basis points to 6 percent, prompting some to
worry that upcoming economic data would be worse than expected.
 "The market is not sure what to do with the news. It is
positive news that China is easing its monetary policy but there
are worries that the slowdown might be worse than originally
anticipated," James Zhang, an analyst at Standard Bank, said.
 Copper, the commodity most exposed to Chinese growth, fell
0.5 percent to $7,695 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange
 after earlier rising as much as 0.8 percent after the
Chinese rate cut. Spot gold lost 0.7 percent to $1,603.50
an ounce, wekeaned by the rising dollar.  
 
 
 
 GRAINS EXTEND RALLY
 Despite the macro-economic worries, U.S. corn extended one
of its biggest rallies ever, while soybeans jumped to within 20
cents a record high as new forecasts offered no sign of rain to
relieve crops parched by the worst drought in 24 years. 
 Corn prices have surged by nearly 30 percent over the past
two weeks, pulling wheat and soybean prices up with them and
raising the specter of food inflation.
 Weather forecasters said a spell of blistering triple-digit
heat should ease by the weekend, but predicted that key growing
states would remain thirsty for rain. Grains prices rose more
after a midday update showed the hot weather could return in the
middle of next week.
 Chicago Board of Trade December corn gained 34 U.S.
cents, or 5 percent, to $7.08-1/2 a bushel by 1:05 p.m. CDT
(1804 GMT). The most active Chicago November soybean contract
 spiked 43-3/4 cents, or 3 percent, to $15.18-1/2 per
bushel, touching a contract high of $15.21 a bushel. 
 
 NORWAY FEARS HIT BRENT
 Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel after oil companies in
Norway called a lockout of some 6,500 offshore oil and gas
workers from July 9 in a bid to force the government to step in
and end a strike. Statoil said the shortfall would
amount to 1.2 million barrels per day of oil equivalent.
 Norway's labor ministry declined to say whether it would
intervene but said a lockout was legal. 
 Brent crude surged by 2.6 percent to a high of
$102.34 a barrel, before giving up some of the gains to settle
at $100.70 a barrel, up 93 cents. Trading volume was more than
double the one-year average at over 865,000 lots.
 U.S. crude oil inventories fell 4.3 million barrels last
week, far more than the forecast, but traders said the figure
was likely inflated by delivery delays caused by Tropical Storm
Debby. Imports slumped for a second week. 
 

 Prices at 4:14 p.m. EST (2014 GMT)      
                          LAST/      NET    PCT     YTD
                          CLOSE      CHG    CHG     CHG
 US crude                    86.88    -0.78  -0.9%  -12.1%
 Brent crude                100.33     0.56   0.6%   -6.6%
 Natural gas                 2.945    0.046   1.6%   -1.5%
 
 US gold                   1609.40   -12.40  -0.8%    2.7%
 Gold                      1603.24   -11.89  -0.7%    2.5%
 US Copper                  349.15    -4.65  -1.3%    1.6%
                            
 Dollar                     82.808    1.028   1.3%    3.3%
 CRB                       293.260    0.620   0.2%   -3.9%
 
 US corn                    708.50    34.00   5.0%    9.6%
 US soybeans               1551.50    53.50   3.6%   29.5%
 US wheat                   822.50    40.25   5.2%   26.0%
 
 US Coffee                  180.35    -0.10  -0.1%  -21.0%
 US Cocoa                  2328.00   -22.00  -0.9%   10.4%
 US Sugar                    22.33     0.11   0.5%   -3.9%
 
 US silver                  27.672   -0.608  -2.1%   -0.9%
 US platinum               1476.70   -13.70  -0.9%    5.1%
 US palladium               585.75   -13.15  -2.2%  -10.7%
 
 (Additional reporting by Susan Thomas, Julia Payne, Rod Nickel,
Gene Ramos and Mark Weinraub; editing by Jane Baird and David
Gregorio)
 
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