UPDATE 4-US natural gas drops nearly 6 pct, recoils from $3

Fri Jul 6, 2012 8:18pm BST

 * Gas finds resistance at $3, retreats
 * Gas starting to lose price appeal over coal
 * Cooler weather adds pressure to prices

 (Adds settlement price, analyst quote)
 NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell
nearly 6 percent on Friday after briefly hitting $3 for the
first time since January as pressure from a forecast for cooler
weather and reduced power demand outweighed a bullish government
storage report.
 The pull-back threatens to cap a nearly four-week rally that
pushed prices up by more than a third, reaching a point at which
analysts say gas is losing its price appeal over coal as a
power-generation fuel. 
 New weather reports suggested that higher-than-normal
temperatures, which have increased power and gas demand, may
moderate over the next week. 
 "After an initial spike in prices, the prompt contract
appeared to have hit very strong resistance at $3 (per million
British thermal units) and the August contract in turn fell by
10 cents an hour after the (storage) data release," Citi
analysts said in a note.
 After topping $3 in overnight trade, prices briefly pierced
the psychological resistance point again in the wake of data
showing that domestic gas inventories rose last week by 39
billion cubic feet, less than the 44 bcf forecast by
analysts. 
 Private weather forecaster EarthSat forecast above-normal
temperatures for the next five days in the east and mid-west and
much of the west coast, with moderating temperatures expected
across the country for the 6- to 10-day outlook.
 August futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange 
settled down nearly 17 cents, or 5.7 percent, at $2.776 after
earlier hitting $3.060, the highest level since early January.
Gas for September to November showed similar declines.
 Since posting a 10-year low of $1.902 twice in late April,
nearby futures are up about 55 percent on signs that record
production was finally slowing and demand picking up as more
electric utilities switched from coal to gas.
 Data from Baker Hughes on Friday showed the gas-directed rig
count rose 8 to 542, its first rise in 7 weeks. 
 (Rig graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s)
 In the cash market, gas bound for the NYMEX delivery point
Henry Hub NG-W-HH in Louisiana was heard early at $2.95, up 5
cents from Thursday's average of $2.90. 
 Early Hub cash deals were done at a 2-cent premium to the
front month contract, easing slightly from deals done late
Thursday about 5 cents above the front month. Gas on the Transco
pipeline at the New York citygate NG-NYCZ6 was heard early
near $3.17, down 6 cents from Thursday's average of $3.23.
 ANOTHER BELOW-AVERAGE BUILD
 The U.S. natural gas inventory build of 39 bcf was much
lower than the 90 bcf build over the same period last year and
the five-year average of 79 bcf, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration reported.
 Traders noted this week's build was likely reduced not only
by widespread heat, but by some offshore gas production shut ins
in the Gulf of Mexico due to Tropical Storm Debby.
 The storm knocked out less than 5 bcf of output in total
over several days due to evacuations, but there were no reports
of damage to offshore facilities. Output was near fully restored
by late last week.
 Lagging storage builds this season have raised expectations
that record-high inventories can be trimmed to more manageable
levels in the 20 weeks left before winter withdrawals begin.
 The injection number trimmed the surplus to last year to 620
bcf, or 25 percent, and sliced the excess versus the five-year
average to 573 bcf, or 22 percent.     
 (Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s)    
 Total storage is already 75 percent full and hovering at a
level not normally reached until late August. Producing-region
stocks are at 84 percent of estimated capacity.

 (Reporting by Edward McAllister; editing by M.D. Golan, David
Gregorio, Andrew Hay and Bob Burgdorfer)
 
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