UPDATE 1-Morgan Stanley commodities risk leaps but revenue falls

Thu Jul 19, 2012 5:39pm BST

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 * Commodities risk highest since 2008 but doesn't pay off
 * Fixed income and commodities revenue drop sharply

 (Adds details, context, peer comparisons)
 By Barani Krishnan
 July 19 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley's commodities
trading risk shot to pre-financial crisis highs during the
second quarter but revenue from the sector and other trading
fell, showing that its bid to buck Wall Street's lower-risk
approach did not pay off.
 The only major U.S. investment bank to keep risk up while
navigating tough oil, metals and grains markets in the three
months to June, Morgan Stanley's Value-at-Risk (VaR) in
commodities rose to its highest since the second quarter of
2008.
 In comparison, arch rival Goldman Sachs slashed its
commodities VaR to 8-year lows during the same period.
 
 J.P.Morgan, the largest U.S. bank and last year's
highest earner in commodities among the three,
trimmed risk in the sector to the lowest since 2010.
 
 While Morgan Stanley outdid its peers on commodities risk,
it didn't have the results to show for it.    
 Wall Street banks typically do not break down their
commodity earnings but declare them under a "fixed income"
category, which includes receipts from bonds and currencies.
Morgan Stanley said that excluding accounting gains, net revenue
for fixed income and commodities sales and trading slumped to
$770 million during the second quarter from $1.9 billion a year
ago.
 "I think really what it was is when the volatility in
commodities picked up, Morgan Stanley did not handle it that
well, and that's partly reflected in its share price today,"
said Matt McCormick, a portfolio manager at Bahl & Gaynor
Investment Counsel in Cincinnati, Ohio, who follows banks.
 Morgan Stanley's stock fell more than 4 percent to
below $13.40 a share after it reported a 24-percent drop in
revenue for the second quarter on Thursday, despite earning a
net profit compared to a loss in the first quarter. It also
announced plans to cut as much as 7 percent of its staff this
year.   
 In its quarterly report, the bank said it experienced a
"challenging" environment for fixed income and "reduced levels
of client activity," using language similar to that of peer
Goldman Sachs in its recent earnings report.
 Client activity refers to trading and hedging done by Wall
Street banks on behalf of customers. Since 2010, most U.S.
investment banks say they have barely traded for their own
accounts after new financial laws were passed to restrict
proprietary trading that once brought them huge profits and were
blamed in part for excessive risks taken during the financial
crisis.
 
 TOUGH COMMODITIES QUARTER
 Commodity prices experienced some of their wildest swings in
the three months to June, scaring many investors away and into
the relative safety of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar.
 After comparatively mild moves in April, commodity prices
plunged in May and continued a broad downtrend until a violent
snap back on the last trading day of June.  
 The 1 percent drop on the benchmark Thomson
Reuters-Jefferies commodities index in April - followed
by an 11 percent slump and 4 percent gain in subsequent months -
tripped up some of the biggest speculators in the sector,
including hedge funds which posted sharp losses.
 Morgan Stanley said its commodities VaR averaged $34 million
per day in the second quarter - a rise of 10 percent from $31
million in the first quarter and up 17 percent from $29 million
in the second quarter of 2011.
 VaR is an important consideration for investment banks when
making trading and hedging decisions for an asset class. Since
Wall Street banks do not break down their commodity receipts,
the VaR is also often the best guide to their exposure in that
area.
 Like Goldman and J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley's VaR readings
are based on a 95 percent confidence level of the potential loss
it could make in trading commodities and other assets over a
one-day time horizon.
 Commodities VaR at leading Wall Street banks over the past
two years (in $ millions):       
                    Average commodities VaR by quarter     
             2Q12 1Q12  4Q11  3Q11  2Q11 1Q10  4Q10 3Q10 2Q10
* JPMorgan        13   21   20   15    16    13    14   13    20
    
* Goldman Sachs   20   26   26   25    39    37    23   29    32
 
* Morgan Stanley  34   31   28   32    29    33    26   30    29
     
* Bank of America n/a  13.1 12.1 15.7  23.7  23.9 17.7 19.4 23.2
 
** Citigroup      n/a  14   18   22    25    23    27   26    21
    
  
*  Value-at-Risk based on a 95 percent confidence level 
** Value-at-Risk based on a 99 percent confidence level     

Note: Bank of America has issued second quarter results but its
VaR readings are reported in a separate regulatory filing.
Citigroup, which will release Q2 results on July 20, also
reports VaR in a later filing.     

 (Reporting by Barani Krishnan; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
 
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