TEXT-Fitch raises PSE&G rating to 'A-', outlook is stable
July 27 - Fitch Ratings has upgraded to 'A-' the long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on Public Service Enterprise Group's (PSEG) regulated utility subsidiary, Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G). Fitch has also affirmed the 'BBB+' long-term IDRs on PSEG and its merchant electric generation subsidiary PSEG Power LLC (Power). The 'F2' short-term IDR and commercial paper rating on PSEG and PSE&G were affirmed. A detailed list of rating actions is shown at the end of this release. The Rating Outlook for PSEG, Power, and PSE&G is Stable. These rating actions affect approximately $7.4 billion of bonds at PSE&G and Power and all borrowings under the revolving credit facilities. PSE&G Upgrade: The upgrade to PSE&G's ratings reflects the benefits of recent and planned capital investments combined with consistently strong financial metrics. The utility's recent infrastructure projects and expected strong EBITDA growth from transmission projects in progress that earn a FERC formula rate return will significantly diversify the utility's future cash flows. These transmission projects provide increased cash flow predictability at a strong return on equity, with timely recovery of capital deployed. Furthermore, the regulatory environment in New Jersey remains constructive. PSE&G was able to implement a weather normalization clause at its natural gas utility in 2010, which stabilized cash flows during the abnormally mild winter earlier this year. Fitch does not expect the need for PSE&G to file another rate case during the next few years, given the recent 2010 rate case and the likelihood of the utility being able to continue to earn its authorized rate of return. Despite the end of bonus depreciation this year, which will negatively affect cash flows in future years, Fitch expects financial metrics to remain strong and to benefit in terms of increased stability due to the aforementioned qualitative enhancements. PSEG's ratings are supported by the strong credit profile of its two principal subsidiaries: Power and PSE&G, the largest regulated electric and natural gas distribution utility in New Jersey. In addition, PSEG does not have any long-term parent level debt. Key Rating Factors: --A constructive regulatory environment in New Jersey; --Fuel diversification and limited exposure to environmental regulation at Power; --Power's multi-year hedging program; --Power's exposure to price volatility in the competitive generation market; --Robust financial metrics at all three entities; --An increased capital expenditure budget at PSE&G. Constructive Regulatory Environment: PSE&G's ratings largely reflect the balanced regulatory oversight of the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU). The BPU permits PSE&G to use several regulatory mechanisms to recover costs in a timely manner, and it also has implemented a weather normalization clause at the natural gas utility. These regulatory mechanisms enhance the predictability of utility cash flows by mitigating the effect of exogenous factors. The latest authorized return on equity (ROE) of 10.3% for both the electric and natural gas utility operations is roughly the nationwide average for the sector. Fuel Diversification and Limited Environmental Exposure: Power has a relatively diverse source of fuel for its generating plants, which limits the impact associated with any negative shock to a particular fuel source. In 2011, 56% of Power's generation was from its interest in five nuclear plants, with 28% from natural gas and 15% from coal. Power's coal-fired generating fleet already has the bulk of its necessary environmental control equipment in place. This mitigates the need for future expenditures or the shutdown of plants in order to comply with environmental regulations. The company's diverse fuel sources result in Power's assets being placed all along the dispatch curve, enabling the company to benefit from different electric generation market conditions. Power's baseload units have had a solid operating record, with its nuclear plants having achieved an aggregate capacity utilization factor of greater than 90% in each of the past five years. The strong performance of these baseload units gives Power a favorable competitive position in its wholesale markets. Multi-Year Contract Profile: Power's ratings benefit from the company's pro-rata multi-year hedging program. The company locks in prices three years in advance through participation in the Basic Generation Services (BGS) auction in New Jersey and in capacity auctions held by the PJM Regional Transmission Organization (PJM) and the Independent System Operator New England (ISO-NE). As of March 31, 2012, Power's nuclear and baseload coal generation, which accounted for 71% of the company's total generation in 2011, was fully hedged for 2012 at $59/Megawatt hour (MWh), 85%-90% hedged for 2013 at $53/MWh, and 35%-40% hedged for 2014 at $55/MWh. Power's intermediate load and peaking facilities generally have a lower percentage of their expected volumes hedged in the current year and are unhedged in the outer years. Volatility of Power Prices: The primary credit concern for Power is the company's exposure to price volatility in the merchant power market. Power only contracts its power sales out a few years, and it will generally have up to a quarter of its expected annual power generation unhedged at the beginning of each year. Due to Power's merchant exposure, it is important that management continues to keep leverage at a modest level to enable the company to absorb periods of weak cash flows without too much strain on the balance sheet. Strong Financial Metrics: The ratings on PSEG, Power, and PSE&G are bolstered by strong financial metrics, aided by management's relatively conservative use of debt. Power's EBITDA will likely continue to trend downward through 2014, due to higher-priced electricity hedges rolling off and continued pressure on power prices as a result of weak demand and low natural gas prices. However, Power's financial metrics are expected to continue to have sufficient cushion for the ratings, and Fitch anticipates cash flows remaining robust enough to retire debt as needed to maintain appropriate strength. Fitch expects Power's funds from operations (FFO) to debt ratio to average more than 35% over the 2012-14 period, and its EBITDA to interest coverage ratio to remain greater than 6.0 times (x). PSE&G is undergoing a relatively large capital spending program over the next few years. However, the spending is primarily on BPU-authorized infrastructure projects and FERC-regulated transmission projects, both of which include timely recovery of costs and attractive returns. These infrastructure projects should provide significant growth to EBITDA through the forecast period. Fitch expects PSE&G's FFO to debt ratio to average more than 20% and its EBITDA to interest coverage ratio to remain greater than 6.0x over the 2012-14 period. Fitch's expectations for continued strong financial performance at Power and PSE&G should provide similarly strong consolidated financial metrics at PSEG. Over the 2012-14 forecast period, Fitch expects PSEG's FFO to debt ratio to average more than 25% and its EBITDA to interest coverage ratio to remain greater than 6.0x. Adequate Liquidity: PSEG, Power, and PSE&G all have good liquidity. PSEG and PSE&G each has its own commercial paper program to meet short-term liquidity requirements, with PSEG using its program to also meet the short-term liquidity needs of Power. The companies have an aggregate $4.3 billion in bank credit facilities. This includes a total of $2.1 billion of five-year revolving credit facilities that were recently renewed and mature in March 2
- Tweet this
- Link this
- Share this
- Digg this
- Reprints
Comments (0)
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.



Follow Reuters