METALS-Copper steady, China data boosts stimulus hopes

Thu Aug 9, 2012 4:41pm BST

 (Updates prices; adds fresh quote)
 * China July industrial output growth at three-year low
 * China CPI at 30-month low offers room for more easing
 * U.S. job, trade data beat expectations
 By Susan Thomas and Silvia Antonioli
 LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Copper was little changed on Thursday as a
stronger dollar weighed on the metal while support came from strong U.S. job
figures and prospects of monetary easing in top metals consumer China after
subdued manufacturing and inflation data. 
 In July, annual growth in China's factory output slowed to the weakest level
in more than three years, while annual consumer inflation fell to a 30-month low
of 1.8 percent.  
 Some analysts said these figures were poor enough to trigger policy moves by
Beijing. 
 "It's a story of data. The lower-than-expected inflation figures in China
give authorities a little bit more room on interest rate," said Steve
Hardcastle, head of metals trading at Sucden Financial. 
 "The U.S. jobs and trade data figures are supportive of stabilisation if not
improvement in the growth pattern in the States so the general market sentiment
is a little bit better."
 The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last
week while the trade deficit in June was the smallest in 1-1/2 years, hopeful
signs for the struggling economy. 
 Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was $7,552.75 a
tonne by 1502 GMT from $7,550 at the close on Wednesday. Volumes were slim as
the summer holiday season in Europe gets underway.
 European shares rose towards five-month highs despite evidence of weakening
activity across the region, as investors drew strength from robust U.S. data
releases and on the implications of the Chinese data.  
 


 DOLLAR STRENGTH
 The euro fell as the dollar rose against a basket of currencies. A
stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the unit more expensive for holders
of other currencies.
 Tin was $18,100 per tonne from $18,200 at the close on Wednesday. 
 Refined tin shipments from Indonesia, the world's top exporter, fell 14
percent in July from the previous month, a trade ministry official said on
Thursday, as windy weather and falling global prices limited supplies.
 
 LME tin prices have fallen from record highs above $33,000 a tonne last
year, with demand and the outlook hit by the global economic slowdown.
 This week, Indonesia's PT Timah said it had stopped selling tin on
the spot market because of the low prices, cutting shipments this month.
 
 Indonesian smelters have a track record of disrupting supplies to boost
prices, and analysts are sceptical that the new export curbs will support prices
due to the overall economic and investor sentiment. 
 "In our opinion it is doubtful whether this will help to stabilize the tin
price," Commerzbank said in a research note.
 "After all, a self-imposed export ban in the fourth quarter of last year was
undermined by a number of producers, and was ultimately lifted again without
having had the desired effect."
 Aluminium was $1,912.25 from $1,915 at the close on Wednesday.
 "The light metal is holding above its 30-day moving average for the moment,
but is faltering with the strength of the dollar," RBC said in a research note.
"We would expect to see support at 1,900 and resistance at 1,950 and 2,000."
 Aluminium's 30-day moving average is currently $1,901.32, according to
Reuters data.
 Three-month nickel was $15,560 from $15,740 and lead was
$1,914.25 from $1,911 while zinc was at $1,860.75 from $1,869.
 Metal Prices at 1509 GMT
 Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
  Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2011   Ytd Pct
                                                           move
  COMEX Cu       342.80        0.65     +0.19     344.75     -0.57
  LME Alum      1914.00       -1.00     -0.05    2020.00     -5.25
  LME Cu        7553.75        3.75     +0.05    7600.00     -0.61
  LME Lead      1915.75        4.75     +0.25    2034.00     -5.81
  LME Nickel   15550.00     -190.00     -1.21   18650.00    -16.62
  LME Tin      18100.00     -100.00     -0.55   19200.00     -5.73
  LME Zinc      1860.50       -9.00     -0.48    1845.00      0.84
  SHFE Alu     15490.00       65.00     +0.42   15845.00     -2.24
  SHFE Cu*     55270.00      420.00     +0.77   55360.00     -0.16
  SHFE Zin     14755.00       80.00     +0.55   14795.00     -0.27
 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
 * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
 SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
 
 (Editing by Anthony Barker)
 
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