GRAINS-Soybeans rebound from 3-month low in technical bounce

Wed Oct 3, 2012 8:59pm BST

* Soybeans rebound on buy-stops, bargain purchases
    * Corn slips on harvest pressure, slumping demand
    * Wheat firms as soybeans bounce

 (Updates with closing prices)
    By Karl Plume
    CHICAGO, Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures rebounded
from a three-month low on Wednesday in a technical-buying and
bargain-hunting bounce after tumbling nearly $3 a bushel from
record highs set a month ago.
    Soybeans had slumped to just above $15 a bushel, dragged
down by persistent reports of higher-than-expected yields and
fund liquidation. But buy-stops kicked in, sending the oversold
market higher for the first time in three days.
    Corn futures drifted lower on harvest pressure, a slowdown
in ethanol production and sharply lower crude oil prices. Wheat
edged higher after two sessions of declines, following the
rebound in soybeans.
    "We tripped low enough (in soybeans) that we triggered some
buy-stops. We were getting into some technically oversold
territory and to see a spike in the buying activity is not
uncommon," said Karl Setzer, a commodity trading adviser at
MaxYield Cooperative in West Bend, Iowa.
    "The basis is firming like crazy around the countryside.
Cash basis levels have improved by 15 to 20 cents in the last 24
hours," he said.
 
   
    Benchmark Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans 
rose 1-1/4 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $15.31-3/4 a bushel after
sinking as low as $15.04, the weakest for a front-month contract
since June 29.
    Buy-stops kicked in around the low, which was a 61 percent
Fibonacci retracement of the market's June-through-August rally,
traders said.
    The contract had breached its 100-day moving average this
week and filled a chart gap from late June around $15.22.
    
    YIELD REPORTS
    Grain markets had been under pressure this week from a
rapidly progressing harvest and a steady stream of reports that
yields, particularly for soybeans, were larger than expected.
    Commodity brokerage INTL FCStone late on Tuesday raised its
production estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans as the worst
U.S. drought in a half century appeared not to have damaged
crops as much as had been feared. 
    "The news that was bullish during the summer has turned
around. Rather than the supply getting smaller, it's now getting
bigger," said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities in West
Des Moines, Iowa.
    "Acres and yield are projected to be up in the next (U.S.
Department of Agriculture) report for soybeans, and for corn the
yields are expected to be up moderately," he said.
    Grains markets are anticipating similar upward revisions in
a report from closely followed advisory firm Informa later this
week and a monthly USDA report next week.
    
    CORN EASES
    CBOT December corn fell 1-1/2 cents, or 0.2 percent,
to $7.56-3/4 a bushel, weighed down by sluggish demand from
ethanol producers and exporters and spillover pressure from a
drop of nearly $4 per barrel in crude oil prices.
    An Energy Information Administration report on Wednesday
showed ethanol output dropped last week by 24,000 barrels per
day to 785,000 bpd, the lowest since the agency started
publishing production data for the corn-based biofuel in 2010.
    CBOT December wheat rose 1-1/2 cents, or 0.2 percent, to
$8.73 per bushel after earlier sinking as low at $8.73 on
crop-boosting weather in the U.S. Plains wheat belt and sluggish
export demand.
    Global buyers continue to bypass U.S. wheat and look to
lower-cost grain from rival exporters.
    Top importer Egypt bought 240,000 tonnes of French and
Argentine wheat in the latest tender by the country's government
buyer GASC. 
    
 Prices at 2:41 p.m. CDT (1941 GMT)      
                              LAST      NET    PCT     YTD
                                        CHG    CHG     CHG
 CBOT corn                  756.75    -1.50  -0.2%   17.1%
 CBOT soy                  1531.75     1.25   0.1%   27.8%
 CBOT meal                  465.50     2.10   0.5%   50.5%
 CBOT soyoil                 50.33     0.06   0.1%   -3.4%
 CBOT wheat                 873.00     1.50   0.2%   33.7%
 CBOT rice                 1524.00   -13.00  -0.9%    4.3%
 EU wheat                   258.00    -1.25  -0.5%   27.4%
 
 US crude                    88.02    -3.87  -4.2%  -10.9%
 Dow Jones                  13,493       10   0.1%   10.4%
 Gold                      1777.79     3.65   0.2%   13.7%
 Euro/dollar                1.2900  -0.0018  -0.1%   -0.3%
 Dollar Index              79.9610   0.2170   0.3%   -0.3%
 Baltic Freight                798       20   2.6%  -54.1%
 
 (Additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore, Sybille
de La Hamaide and Valerie Parent in Paris; Editing by Keiron
Henderson, Maureen Bavdek, Dale Hudson and Gunna Dickson)
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