FACTBOX-Commodity price forecasts after mid-April declines

Mon Apr 29, 2013 7:41pm BST

Quotes

   

(Adds Goldman Sachs' copper and aluminium forecasts for 2013 and 2014)
    April 29 (Reuters) - Global investment banks have adjusted near-term price
forecasts for energy, metals and agricultural commodities after the mid-April
market tumble.
    Brent crude oil fell below $100 a barrel the first time in nine
months; gold suffered its biggest loss in dollar terms; and copper
 sunk to an 18-month low after the selloff, triggered by worries of
stagnating China growth, fresh concerns about the euro zone and U.S. economic
uncertainty.
    Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's most influential name in commodities,
has lowered its forecast for Brent crude in the second quarter, while turning
bullish on copper due to inventory drawdowns in China. It also withdrew its
previous call to short gold, as bullion prices moved back above $1,400 an ounce.
    Barclays said U.S. crude oil would likely outperform the
London-traded Brent, while U.S. natural gas might turn out to be one of the
strongest energy markets of all.
    ABN Amro said U.S. wheat prices could ease due to higher stockpiles of the
grain, although growing demand will keep the market around historic highs. It
said higher production could limit price gains in U.S. soybeans, although demand
for the crop could rise by more than 12 percent.
    Deutsche Bank said it also saw U.S. soybeans coming under
pressure later in the year from Brazilian harvests of the oilseed.
    Commodity price forecasts for Q2 to 2014:
 
 ENERGY
             
 Brent Crude Oil in $ per barrel (Q1 average $112.50)
 ******************************************************************************
                 Forecast Issued    Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19       110.00  111.00  114.00  112.00   130.00  
 
 ABN Amro            April 25        90.00  n/a     n/a     105.00   100.00
 Goldman Sachs       April 23       100.00  103.50  105.00  105.00   105.00
 Deutsche Bank       April 26       112.00  115.00  115.00  113.66   113.25
 Morgan Stanley      April 22       107.00  112.00  110.00  110.00   n/a
 Bank of America     April 24       110.00  110.00  112.00  110.00   112.00
 
 West Texas Intermediate (U.S.) crude        in $ per barrel (Q1 average $94.90)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        95.00   93.00   99.00    95.00   117.00 
 
 ABN Amro            April 25        80.00   n/a     n/a     105.00   100.00
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        94.00   98.50   99.00    96.50    96.50
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        97.00   105.00  105.00  100.34   103.25
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        n/a     n/a     n/a       n/a      n/a
 Bank of America     April 24        89.00   89.00   92.00    90.00    92.00
 
 U.S. Natural Gas        in $ per million British thermal units (Q1 average
$3.49 per mmBtu)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        4.00    4.00    4.1     3.90     4.10   
 
 ABN Amro            April 25        4.25    n/a     n/a     3.90     4.50
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        4.50    n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        3.70    3.80    4.00    3.75     4.25
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        4.05    4.00    4.20    3.93     n/a
 Bank of America     April 24        4.00    3.80    4.30    3.90     4.20
 
 PRECIOUS METALS
    
 Gold               , in $ per ounce (Q1 average $1,632 per ounce)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        1,350   1,450   1,500   1,483    1,450  
 
 ABN Amro            April 25        1,350   n/a     n/a     1,450    1,150
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        1,530   n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        1,590   1,625   1,700   1,637    1,810
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        1,391   1,450   1,475   1,487    1,563
 Bank of America     April 24        1,600   1,700   1,750   1,670    1,838
 
 Silver       , in $ per ounce (Q1 average $30.29 per ounce)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        23.00   25.00   26.00   26.00    24.00  
 
 ABN Amro            April 25        20.00   n/a     n/a     25.00    28.00
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        25.50   n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        29.00   31.00   32.00   31.00    34.00
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        32.92   33.96   34.53   33.44    34.81
 Bank of America     April 24        30.50   34.00   35.00   32.40    33.88
 
 Platinum       , in $ per ounce (Q1 average $1,632 per ounce)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        1,660   1,710   1,750   1,687    1,750
 ABN Amro            April 25        1,500   n/a     n/a     1,575    1,650
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        n/a     n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        1,625   1,650   1,725   1,658    1,800
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        1,710   1,720   1,730   1,715    1,785
 Bank of America     April 24        1,750   1,750   1,850   1,746    1,850
 
 BASE METALS
 
 Copper        , in $ per tonne (Q1 average $7,920 per tonne)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        8,100   8,000   7,650   7,920    7,500
 ABN Amro            April 25        7,650   n/a     n/a     7,950    8,300
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        7,500   n/a     n/a     7,600    6,925
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        7,700   7,800   8,000   7,865    7,500
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        8,500   8,700   8,800   8,600    8,200
 Bank of America     April 24        7,950   8,250   7,750   7,971    7,500
 
 Nickel        , in $ per tonne (Q1 average $17,295 per tonne)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        16,500  16,250  17,000  16,766   18,000
 ABN Amro            April 25        16,800  n/a     n/a     17,000   20,000 
 
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        16,500  n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        16,500  16,500  17,000  16,844   16,000 
 
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        17,900  18,200  18,500  18,100   19,600
 Bank of America     April 24        16,750  17,500  17,500  17,261   18,000
 
 Aluminium        , in $ tonne (Q1 average $2,000 per tonne)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        1,950   2,000   2,100   2,013    2,100  
 
 ABN Amro            April 25        1,975   n/a     n/a     2,000    2,150
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        2,000   n/a     n/a     2,050    2,050
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        1,950   2,000   2,150   2,035    2,170
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        2,200   2,200   2,300   2,200    2,300
 Bank of America     April 24        2,050   2,100   2,000   2,040    1,975
 
 Zinc        , in $ tonne (Q1 average $2,208 per tonne)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        2,050   1,950   2,200   2,058    2,700
 ABN Amro            April 25        2,000   n/a     n/a     2,050    2,200
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        1,950   n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        1,950   2,050   2,150   2,051    2,020  
 
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        2,100   2,200   2,200   2,200    2,300  
 
 Bank of America     April 24        2,050   2,350   2,200   2,158    2,250
 
 AGRICULTURE
 
 Corn      , in $ per bushel (Q1 average $7.21 per bushel)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        n/a     n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a    
 
 ABN Amro            April 25        6.40    n/a     n/a     6.30     n/a
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        6.50    n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        6.40    6.46    5.00    6.25     5.34   
 
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        n/a     n/a     n/a     7.85     5.90
 
 Soybeans      , in $ per bushel (Q1 average $14.52 per bushel)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        n/a     n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a  
 ABN Amro            April 25        14.10   n/a     n/a     13.70    n/a    
 
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        13.50   n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        13.30   14.20   10.90   13.20    12.06  
 
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        n/a     n/a     n/a     15.70    14.50
 
 Wheat      , in $ per bushel (Q1 average $7.12 per bushel)
                 Forecast Issued     Q2      Q3      Q4      2013     2014
 Barclays            April 19        n/a     n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a    
 
 ABN Amro            April 25        6.40    n/a     n/a     6.30     n/a
 Goldman Sachs       April 23        6.50    n/a     n/a     n/a      n/a
 Deutsche Bank       April 26        6.55    6.70    6.15    6.70     5.96   
 
 Morgan Stanley      April 22        n/a     n/a     n/a     8.30     7.30
 
 (Reporting by Barani Krishnan; Editing by Nick Zieminski)