Europe's top flu expert on alert for bird flu spread

LONDON Thu May 2, 2013 4:23pm BST

File photo of Professor Angus Nicoll (R) answering questions concerning swine flu at a news conference at the European Center for Disease Control (ECDC) in Stockholm April 29, 2009. REUTERS/SCANPIX/Jonas Ekstromer

File photo of Professor Angus Nicoll (R) answering questions concerning swine flu at a news conference at the European Center for Disease Control (ECDC) in Stockholm April 29, 2009.

Credit: Reuters/SCANPIX/Jonas Ekstromer

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LONDON (Reuters) - Human cases of a deadly new strain of bird flu that has killed 27 people in China are likely to crop up in Europe and around the world but that should not cause undue alarm, Europe's leading flu expert said on Thursday.

In his first media interview since returning from an international scientific mission to China last week, Professor Angus Nicoll said the H7N9 flu outbreak in humans was one that should be taken extremely seriously and watched closely.

"We are at the start of a very long haul with H7N9," Nicoll told Reuters in a telephone interview from the Stockholm-based European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), where he is head of the influenza and respiratory viruses program.

He said there were many scientific questions to be answered about the new flu strain, which was first detected in patients in China in March having been previously unknown in humans.

The flu has so far infected at least 127 people in China and killed 27 of them, according to latest data from Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization.

Scientific studies of the virus have established it is being transmitted from birds - probably mostly chickens - to people, making it a so-called zoonotic disease that humans catch from animals rather than from other humans.

Nicoll, who visited Beijing and Shanghai last week with a team of international scientific experts, confirmed what the WHO has repeatedly said - that there is no evidence yet of the virus efficiently passing from person to person - a factor that would make H7N9 a serious pandemic flu threat if it were to evolve.

Nicoll said the "most pressing public health question" for now was to identify the source of the circulating virus - the so-called "reservoir" - that is leading to chickens contracting it and sporadically passing it on to humans. This is likely to take time, with any results unlikely for several months.

"IMPORTED CASES"

In the meantime, Nicoll said the ECDC, which monitors disease in the European Union, and health authorities around the world should expect that "imported cases" of H7N9 flu may well begin to crop up elsewhere.

Just as Taiwan reported its first case on April 24, other countries should expect that business travelers and tourists may occasionally return from China having picked up the infection, he said.

"I'm not sure when that will happen. But the case in Taiwan shows that it can. If that person had got on a different flight and ended up in Paris, then we would have had a scenario that we would expect people to be alarmed at," he said.

"But again we should stress that this thing doesn't seem to be transmissible from human to human, so if we get some sporadic cases appearing in Europe, that doesn't change anything."

Nicoll noted that genetic analysis studies of H7N9 samples taken from patients in China showed the virus had already acquired two genetic mutations that made it more likely to be able to become transmissible between people.

Flu experts speaking at a briefing in London on Wednesday said those mutations, together with evidence that H7N9 is still mutating rapidly and probably spreading almost invisibly among birds because it does not make them obviously sick, meant this new flu was a "serious threat" to world health.

"You can never predict anything about flu, but it is concerning to see those mutations there, Nicoll said. "That's why it's important Europe should take this very seriously."

Nicoll added that he thought the Chinese were doing an "impressive job" handling, reporting, investigating and seeking to contain the outbreak.

(Editing by Alison Williams)

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Comments (1)
DavidHill wrote:
We will never be prepared for a bird flu pandemic as the lead-time to create a vaccine and distribute it to the masses will ALWAYS come too late to save us. In this respect by comparing the global response of the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic (modern day response) with the 1918 Spanish Flu, the vaccines will arrive at least 2 months after any human-to-human killer virus has done its worst. In this respect the Spanish flu killed up to a 100 million humans in the 2nd wave, when it had mutated into a human-to-human killer and where it finished its mass killing predominantly a mere 6 months after the first death.
In 2009 the swine flu vaccine was only authorised after 7 months 1 week for use by the US authorities. Therefore add another month for the start of mass production and the first supplies of the vaccine to be available and you have at least 2 months after the Spanish Flu did its worst – note that most killer variants are similar to the 1918 virus.

Indeed, even after 1 year of the first Swine Flu death, only 30% of the American population had been given the Swine Flu vaccine. The problem is logistics and the time it takes to create a vaccine that is the problem. Therefore even if scientists could reduce the time in half for a mass vaccine to be provided, it would still be too late to save the majority of people and in the order of 95%.

Therefore the vaccine strategy is sheer madness and where it will do nothing to stop 100s of millions dying the next time around. Indeed the only strategy that has worked was the ‘source’ strategy in Hong Kong in 1997 that stopped the killer virus in its tracks. But because this had not the ten of billions in drug sales it was killed off by the giant pharmaceutical companies and Nature Magazine in 2008.

The big question is when will humanity wise up on the situation before it all too late and all of us have lost a relative, friend or loved one? For that is what will happen and a minimum of 300 million will go this time.

The effect on the world economy will be devastating and make the financial meltdown look like a storm in a teacup.

We really have to start and realise that big Pharma and their friends like Nature Magazine are only interested in huge profits and not the survival of humankind. There inhumane actions and crimes against humanity can attest to this. Indeed over the past 4 years the major pharmaceutical companies have paid over $13 billion in fines for fraud if people undertake a Google search.

Therefore we must implement the ‘source’ strategy for the good of our children and loved ones – http://www.thewif.org.uk/home.php?xy=1280&pl=win32 or http://avian-influenza.cirad.fr/content/download/1931/11789/file/Kennedy-F-Shortridge.pdf

For tomorrow will be too late to save your children it has to be said . You owe it to them to make our politicians use common sense and drop the vaccine strategy to that of the ‘source’ strategy’ that worked in 1997.

Dr David Hill
World Innovation Foundation

May 02, 2013 6:47pm BST  --  Report as abuse
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