(For other Reuters Dealtalks, click on [DEALTALK/]
* Some funds put on short positions
* Wary stress tests, earnings disguise deeper problems
* Funds wary of being caught out by market volatility
By Laurence Fletcher
LONDON, Aug 13 Hedge funds have started shorting
bank stocks again on concerns last month's stress tests were too
weak and failed to reveal underlying problems, although many are
cautious of taking big bets in such choppy markets.
A wave of what some commentators have seen as good news,
including a bumper earnings season, an easing of capital reforms
and relatively few failures of the high-profile stress tests,
have lifted banks' shares, creating an opportunity for
short-sellers betting prices will fall.
"Some funds have started to put on shorts again after the
strong rally," said Ken Kinsey-Quick, who runs funds of hedge
funds at Thames River Capital.
"(Managers believe that) until they (the banks) come clean
they'll be hugely volatile and remain sick for years to come.
They're still sitting with a lot of loans that are not
Hedge fund Noster Capital has begun shorting five European
banks -- Barclays (BARC.L), UBS UBSN.VX, Intesa SanPaolo
(ISP.MI), UBI (UBI.MI) and BBVA (BBVA.MC). Manager Pedro de
Noronha criticised the tests for ignoring sovereign debt that
banks hold to maturity. [ID:nLDE66T1RQ]
"The widely anticipated PR exercise (also referred to as
stress tests) on European banks produced results that were
considerably better than most investors expected," manager Pedro
Noronha wrote in an investor letter this week.
"Last time we checked, to stress test anything meant to
stress something until the point it breaks. That's not even
close to what was done to European banks."
Meanwhile, last month Reuters reported that Onslow Capital
was shorting some European banks' debt, saying they were
"sceptical" about the stress tests, which they described as
"very weak". [ID:nLDE66Q1DC]
The STOXX Europe 600 Banks index .SX7P rallied as much as
9 percent in the fortnight after Europe's test of 91 banks in 20
countries, which showed seven had failed, and is still up around
2 percent, outperforming the STOXX Europe 600 index .
Shares were also boosted after looming Basel III capital
reforms were scaled back and banks were given longer to
implement changes. [ID:nLDE66Q0KU] [ID:nLDE66Q11A]
Banks also reported higher-than-expected profits last week,
boosted by a sharp fall in bad debts, which outweighed a slump
in investment banking income after Greece's economic crisis.
"It's a very active area... A lot of managers are playing
it," said one fund of funds manager, who spoke on condition of
"On average people are more bearish than bullish... Most
people feel the stress tests were not robust enough and areas of
weakness may emerge."
The manager said some funds are betting on spreads between
senior and unsecured bonds, while others are using credit
default swaps or simply shorting the equity.
While stock lending data -- a good indicator of short
interest -- varies from one company to another, stock out on
loan for HSBC rose from 1.04 percent, the day the stress test
results were released, to 1.46 percent on Wednesday, according
to figures from Data Explorers.
Stock out on loan for Santander also rose sharply in the
fortnight after the stress tests, although has since fallen
back, while UBS UBSN.VX, Credit Suisse CSGN.VX and BNP
Paribas (BNPP.PA) all saw small rises in stock out on loan.
However, hedge funds are wary of taking big bets when
sentiment is changing so much -- what fund managers call the
"risk on, risk off" trade.
"The problem is that volatility just kills you. You might
short banks, they go (successfully) through a weak stress test
and all of a sudden there's a rally," said Thames River's
"You've got to take more of a trading approach... If you are
going to play it, you probably wait for big rallies and then go
(To read the Reuters Funds Blog click on
blogs.reuters.com/fundshub; for the Global Investing Blog