By James B. Kelleher

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Is the HOG still stuck in the mud?

Iconic motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is slated to report first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and analysts and investors are keen to see if the company -- whose ubiquitous motorcycles are known as "Hogs" -- can turn itself around and get its shares moving back in the right direction after falling more than 40 percent over the past year.

Skepticism remains high about the near-term outlook for Harley, even though the shares have gained in the past few days following positive results from another maker of recreational vehicles.

On Tuesday, Polaris Industries Inc (PII.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which makes Victory motorcycles, reported better-than-expected earnings and increased its full-year guidance, raising hopes in some quarters that the pullback in consumer spending that has hammered powersports sales might be waning.

"People sensed some opportunity," Wachovia Securities analyst Tim Conder said of the mini rally in Harley shares. "Things might not be as bad as people are pricing into the stock."

But while Polaris' results provided some sense of optimism, Harley faces one of the same concerns that hurt General Electric Co's (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) results last week -- how to manage a financing business amid the turmoil in the credit markets.

As a result, most analysts remain skeptical on Harley and see little reason to derive too much hope from Polaris.

They said the market in which Minneapolis-based Polaris is doing well -- side-by-side, off-road vehicles -- is one where Milwaukee-based Harley doesn't play.