Reuters logo
2 months ago
What results to watch as UK election goes down to the wire?
June 9, 2017 / 12:52 AM / 2 months ago

What results to watch as UK election goes down to the wire?

 (Updates results)
    LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May's
Conservative Party will fail to win a parliamentary majority in
Britain's election, according to an exit poll, a shock result
that would plunge domestic politics into turmoil and could delay
Brexit talks.
    Below is a list of the 100 most marginal seats from 2015,
ranked from smallest vote margin to largest, with the percentage
swing needed for the second place party to take the seat off of
the incumbent. It also includes estimates of how each seat voted
in last year's EU referendum.

    
 Constituency     2017 winner  2015    2015   margin  pct
                               winner  2nd            swing
                                       place          needed
 Gower                         Con     Lab        27    0.03
 Derby North                   Con     Lab        41    0.05
 City of Chester               Lab     Con        93    0.09
 Croydon Central               Con     Lab       165    0.16
 Ynys Mon                      Lab     PC        229    0.33
 Vale of Clwyd    LABOUR GAIN  Con     Lab       237    0.34
 Ealing Central   LABOUR HOLD  Lab     Con       274    0.27
 and Acton                                            
 Berwickshire,                 SNP     Con       328    0.30
 Roxburgh and                                         
 Selkirk                                              
 Bury North       LABOUR GAIN  Con     Lab       378    0.42
 Wirral West                   Lab     Con       417    0.50
 Morley and                    Con     Lab       422    0.44
 Outwood                               Co-op          
 Halifax                       Lab     Con       428    0.49
 Brentford and                 Lab     Con       465    0.41
 Isleworth                                            
 Plymouth,                     Con     Lab       523    0.55
 Sutton and                            Co-op          
 Devonport                                            
 Fermanagh and                 UUP     SF        530    0.52
 South Tyrone                                         
 Thurrock                      Con     Lab       536    0.54
 Ilford North                  Lab     Con       589    0.60
 Cambridge                     Lab     LD        599    0.58
 Newcastle-under               Lab     Con       650    0.76
 -Lyme                                                
 Brighton,                     Con     Lab       690    0.76
 Kemptown                                             
 Telford                       Con     Lab       730    0.90
 Eastbourne                    Con     LD        733    0.69
 Barrow and                    Lab     Con       795    0.92
 Furness                       Co-op                  
 Dumfriesshire,                Con     SNP       798    0.77
 Clydesdale and                                       
 Tweeddale                                            
 Wolverhampton                 Lab     Con       801    1.00
 South West                                           
 Bolton West                   Con     Lab       801    0.82
 Weaver Vale                   Con     Lab       806    0.86
 Orkney and                    LD      SNP       817    1.80
 Shetland                                             
 Belfast South                 SDLP    DUP       906    1.16
 South Antrim                  UUP     DUP       949    1.30
 Plymouth, Moor                Con     Lab      1026    1.20
 View                                                 
 Lewes                         Con     LD       1083    1.07
 Enfield North                 Lab     Con      1086    1.18
 Bedford                       Con     Lab      1097    1.19
 Hampstead and                 Lab     Con      1138    1.05
 Kilburn                                              
 Hove                          Lab     Con      1236    1.18
 Lancaster and                 Lab     Con      1265    1.52
 Fleetwood                                            
 Southport                     LD      Con      1322    1.50
 Lincoln                       Con     Lab      1443    1.54
 Dewsbury                      Lab     Con      1451    1.35
 Thornbury and                 Con     LD       1495    1.54
 Yate                                                 
 Carshalton and                LD      Con      1510    1.59
 Wallington                                           
 Wrexham          LABOUR HOLD  Lab     Con      1831    2.80
 North East                    Lab     Con      1883    1.96
 Derbyshire                                           
 Peterborough                  Con     Lab      1925    2.04
 Bridgend                      Lab     Con      1927    2.44
 Walsall North                 Lab     Con      1937    2.63
 Westminster                   Lab     Con      1977    2.50
 North                                                
 Twickenham                    Con     LD       2017    1.63
 Cardiff North                 Con     Lab      2137    2.09
 East Dunbarts                 SNP     LD       2167    1.97
 Harrow West                   Lab     Con      2208    2.37
                               Co-op                  
 Upper Bann                    DUP     UUP      2264    2.40
 Middlesbrough                 Lab     Con      2268    2.48
 South and East                                       
 Cleveland                                            
 Southampton,                  Con     Lab      2316    2.59
 Itchen                                Co-op          
 Sheffield,                    LD      Lab      2353    2.12
 Hallam                                               
 Clwyd South                   Lab     Con      2402    3.43
 Waveney                       Con     Lab      2408    2.31
 Corby                         Con     Lab      2412    2.15
                                       Co-op          
 St Ives                       Con     LD       2469    2.56
 Birmingham,                   Lab     Con      2509    2.95
 Northfield                                           
 Stoke-on-Trent                Lab     Con      2539    3.25
 South                                                
 Copeland                      Lab     Con      2564    3.23
 Blackpool South               Lab     Con      2585    3.98
 Belfast East                  DUP     Allia    2597    3.27
                                       nce            
 Wakefield                     Lab     Con      2613    3.04
 Edinburgh South               Lab     SNP      2637    2.68
 Eltham                        Lab     Con      2693    3.12
 Birmingham,                   Lab     Con      2706    3.28
 Edgbaston                                            
 Warrington                    Con     Lab      2750    2.32
 South                                                
 Carlisle         CON HOLD     Con     Lab      2774    3.26
 South Thanet                  Con     UKIP     2812    2.85
 Kingston and                  Con     LD       2834    2.39
 Surbiton                                             
 Tooting                       Lab     Con      2842    2.65
 Leeds North                   LD      Lab      2907    3.35
 West                                                 
 Delyn                         Lab     Con      2930    3.91
 North                         Con     Lab      2973    3.14
 Warwickshire                                         
 Gedling                       Lab     Con      2986    3.11
 Hartlepool                    Lab     UKIP     3024    3.83
 Keighley                      Con     Lab      3053    3.11
 Ceredigion                    LD      PC       3067    4.10
 Halesowen and                 Con     Lab      3082    3.52
 Rowley Regis                                         
 Scunthorpe                    Lab     Con      3134    4.24
 Darlington       LABOUR HOLD  Lab     Con      3158    3.84
 Coventry South                Lab     Con      3188    3.65
 Edinburgh West                SNP     LD       3210    2.93
 Burnley                       Lab     LD       3244    4.08
 Northampton                   Con     Lab      3245    4.12
 North                                                
 Torbay                        Con     LD       3286    3.42
 Blackpool North               Con     Lab      3340    4.24
 and Cleveleys                                        
 Alyn and                      Lab     Con      3343    4.05
 Deeside                                              
 Clacton                       UKIP    Con      3437    3.89
 Bishop Auckland               Lab     Con      3508    4.45
 Newport West                  Lab     Con      3510    4.35
 Erewash                       Con     Lab      3584    3.71
 Crewe and                     Con     Lab      3620    3.63
 Nantwich                                             
 Arfon                         PC      Lab      3668    6.83
 East                          SNP     Lab      3718    3.28
 Renfrewshire                                         
 Hendon                        Con     Lab      3724    3.75
 Ipswich                       Con     Lab      3733    3.83
 Below are some key developments so far:
    
    VALE OF CLWYD
    LABOUR GAIN
    The first Labour gain of the night. Some polls had showed
the Conservatives doing well in Wales, where most people voted
to leave the European Union. But Labour overturned a thin 237
vote margin, increasing its vote by around 12 percentage points
    
    NUNEATON
    CONSERVATIVE HOLD
    Considered a national bellwether seat, holding Nuneaton gave
May's Conservatives a boost. They increased their majority here
in 2015, despite it being a Labour target, and it provided one
of the first indications the Conservatives were on course for
victory. However, Labour also increased their share of the vote
in the seat, as support for the anti-European Union party UKIP
collapsed.
    
    DARLINGTON
    LABOUR HOLD
    This was a key Conservative target seat, which voted in
favor of leaving the EU. But Labour held the seat, with both
parties increasing their share of the vote by about 8 percentage
points.

    SWINDON SOUTH
    CONSERVATIVE HOLD
    Swindon South was held by the Conservatives despite being
among the more marginal seats.    

    BATTERSEA
    LABOUR GAIN
    British junior finance minister Jane Ellison was defending a
15 percentage point lead in Battersea in London, but the
strongly pro-Remain seat voted Labour. The opposition party
increased its share of the vote by 9.1 percentage points, while
Conservative share of the vote dropped by nearly 11 points.    
    
    EALING CENTRAL & ACTON
    LABOUR HOLD
    Labour's Rupa Huq had just a 274 seat majority in 2015, but
gained a massive 16.5 percentage point increase to record nearly
60 percent of the vote it the strongly pro-remain seat.
    
    ANGUS
    CONSERVATIVE GAIN
    Britain's Conservative Party has taken the Angus seat from
the Scottish National Party by overturning a 11,230 majority to
win by 2,644 votes, delivering a blow to Nicola Sturgeon's
party, which had a near clean sweep in Scotland two years ago.
    
    MORAY
    CONSERVATIVE GAIN
    The Conservatives also took Moray from the SNP, unseating
the party's leader in Westminster Angus Robertson. While Moray
voted to remain in the European Union, it did so by the tightest
margin in Scotland, and was strongly against independence in
2014's Scottish referendum.    

    BURY NORTH
    LABOUR GAIN
    This had been a Conservative-held marginal seat, with a
majority of just 378 voters. It has been a bellwether seat so
the fact the Conservatives lost it, despite facing no UKIP
candidate, supports the view that they could lose their
majority.    

    Still to come: 
    
    NORTHAMPTON NORTH, RESULT EXPECTED 0100 GMT
    This seat has elected a lawmaker from the winning party at
every British national election since it was created in 1974. It
is held by the Conservatives with a majority of 3,245.
    UKIP, which won more than 6,000 votes here in 2015, are not
fielding a candidate so it should be a comfortable win for the
Conservatives if they are to increase their national majority.
        
    
    HASTINGS AND RYE, RESULT EXPECTED 0200 GMT
    ITV REPORT THAT THERE IS A RECOUNT AS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
    This is the seat of interior minister Amber Rudd, who has
played a prominent role in the election campaign and is tipped
as a possible successor to Chancellor Philip Hammond. She has
held it since 2010, and won a majority of 4,796 in 2015.
    The Green Party, which won just under 2,000 votes there in
2015, has agreed not to field a candidate in a bid to help
Labour try and unseat Rudd. Pollster YouGov's election model has
predicted they could succeed in doing so.
    
    BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN, RESULT EXPECTED 0400 GMT
    This marginal seat is held by the Conservative minister
responsible for financial services, Simon Kirby, with a majority
of just 690. It voted strongly in favor of remaining in the EU.
    It has been a bellwether at national elections since 1979
and the Green Party, who won more than 3,000 votes here in 2015,
are not standing. Labour need to win seats like this if they are
to have any chance of being the largest party nationally.
    
    HALIFAX, RESULT EXPECTED 0430 GMT
    This is one of Labour's most marginal seats, with a majority
of just 428. It voted in favor of Brexit. May's Conservatives
launched their election policy document here and need to win
seats like this if she is to hang on to her majority.

 (Reporting by Kylie MacLellan and Alistair Smout; editing by
Guy Faulconbridge)
  

0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below