UPDATE 1-Lehman cuts price targets on 7 auto parts suppliers

Wed Jul 2, 2008 2:47pm BST
 
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 July 2 (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers cut its price targets on
seven U.S. auto parts suppliers, particularly those most
exposed to traditional trucks, saying the mix of vehicles sold
in June reflected a deterioration in the move away from
higher-margin traditional trucks towards more fuel-efficient
vehicles.
 "We believe the auto downturn has entered a second phase in
which falling resale values of large vehicles freeze buyers out
of the market," analyst Brian Johnson wrote in a note to
clients.
 The sector's valuation has already come under pressure over
the past few weeks, with many of the stocks trading at
multi-year lows, said Johnson, who rates the sector "neutral."
 Johnson, however, expects some of the hard-hit names like
Dana Holding Corp (DAN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Lear Corp (LEA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to recover over
time as investors realize that the ongoing earnings power
justifies a higher valuation.
 He named BorgWarner Inc (BWA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) as his top pick.
 The analyst expects diversified suppliers such as
BorgWarner and Johnson Controls (JCI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to be less impacted
than American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which
has a huge exposure to the Big 3 -- General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research),
Ford Motor Co (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Chrysler [CBS.UL].
 Ninety percent of American Axle's total revenue is linked
to the Big 3, of which 90 percent is for body-on-frame trucks.
 The analyst, who cut his production forecasts and earnings
estimates across the board, sees sales of traditional full-size
pickups and SUVs continuing to decline quickly.
 Sky-rocketing oil prices have brought demand for trucks to
a screeching halt. Light truck sales dropped to less than 48
percent of new vehicle sales in April and 44 percent in May --
the first time they were below 50 percent since 2001.
 In June, sales of domestic and imported light trucks were
down 19.4 percent from the same month a year ago, the
automakers said on Tuesday.
 The following table shows the changes in price targets:
COMPANY                   PRICE TARGET            CLOSING PRICE
                   New     Old                July 1
ArvinMeritor (ARM.N: Quote, Profile, Research)      $17     $18                $12.34
American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL.N: Quote, Profile, Research)     $11     $20          
  $8.74 BorgWarner Inc (BWA.N: Quote, Profile, Research)    $58     $60               
$45.09 Dana Corp (DAN.N: Quote, Profile, Research)         $12     $15               
$5.28 Johnson Controls (JCI.N: Quote, Profile, Research)  $36     $38               
$29.18 Lear Corp (LEA.N: Quote, Profile, Research)         $22     $28               
$15.35 Tenneco (TEN.N: Quote, Profile, Research)           $18     $21               
$13.95
 (Reporting by Bhaswati Mukhopadhyay in Bangalore; Editing by
Himani Sarkar)


 
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