UPDATE 1-Lehman cuts price targets on 7 auto parts suppliers
(Adds details)
July 2 (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers cut its price targets on seven U.S. auto parts suppliers, particularly those most exposed to traditional trucks, saying the mix of vehicles sold in June reflected a deterioration in the move away from higher-margin traditional trucks towards more fuel-efficient vehicles.
"We believe the auto downturn has entered a second phase in which falling resale values of large vehicles freeze buyers out of the market," analyst Brian Johnson wrote in a note to clients.
The sector's valuation has already come under pressure over the past few weeks, with many of the stocks trading at multi-year lows, said Johnson, who rates the sector "neutral."
Johnson, however, expects some of the hard-hit names like Dana Holding Corp (DAN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Lear Corp (LEA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to recover over time as investors realize that the ongoing earnings power justifies a higher valuation.
He named BorgWarner Inc (BWA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) as his top pick.
The analyst expects diversified suppliers such as BorgWarner and Johnson Controls (JCI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to be less impacted than American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which has a huge exposure to the Big 3 -- General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Ford Motor Co (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Chrysler [CBS.UL].
Ninety percent of American Axle's total revenue is linked to the Big 3, of which 90 percent is for body-on-frame trucks.
The analyst, who cut his production forecasts and earnings estimates across the board, sees sales of traditional full-size pickups and SUVs continuing to decline quickly.
Sky-rocketing oil prices have brought demand for trucks to a screeching halt. Light truck sales dropped to less than 48 percent of new vehicle sales in April and 44 percent in May -- the first time they were below 50 percent since 2001.
In June, sales of domestic and imported light trucks were down 19.4 percent from the same month a year ago, the automakers said on Tuesday.
The following table shows the changes in price targets: COMPANY PRICE TARGET CLOSING PRICE
New Old July 1 ArvinMeritor (ARM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $17 $18 $12.34 American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $11 $20
$8.74 BorgWarner Inc (BWA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $58 $60 $45.09 Dana Corp (DAN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $12 $15 $5.28 Johnson Controls (JCI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $36 $38 $29.18 Lear Corp (LEA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $22 $28 $15.35 Tenneco (TEN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $18 $21 $13.95 (Reporting by Bhaswati Mukhopadhyay in Bangalore; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
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