* Moves earliest possible exit into Q2 2017 from Q1
* Still sees likelihood to scrap FX cap in mid-2107
* Governor Rusnok's news conference highlights
(Adds governor, analyst, background)
By Jan Lopatka and Robert Muller
PRAGUE, Sept 29 The Czech central bank on
Thursday delayed the earliest possible end of its weak-crown
policy until the second quarter of next year and at the same
time confirmed it expected to refloat the crown in mid-2017,
narrowing the corridor for the likely return to standard
monetary policy tools.
The bank has kept the crown on the weak side of 27 per euro
since November 2013 in order to help revice inflation.
It has repeatedly delayed exit from the policy as inflation
stuck around zero. But a rise in output, employment and demand
have brought removal of the exchange rate ceiling closer,
triggering a bout of speculation in the currency forwards market
that the bank could even move soon after the end of this year.
Timing of the exit is of paramount importance to the
country's strongly export-oriented companies and to financial
market players. Most analysts see the crown as undervalued and
expect it to firm after it is floated though by only a few
The bank sought to quash speculation of an early move on
Thursday, extending its "hard" commitment to keep the policy in
place at least into the second quarter of 2017. Previously, the
bank said the earliest possible exit was in January next year.
But at the same time the bank retained its "soft" outlook
that the cap, supported by buying over 20 billion euros in
market interventions since 2013, could be removed around
"The risk of postponement seems to be minimal today, really
the development so far is in line with our forecast and
assumptions," Governor Jiri Rusnok told a news conference.
"Certainly it is out of question ... that we would move the
exit back to the first quarter, that is excluded after today's
meeting, everything else remains."
Rusnok said earlier this month the he saw the exit could
come after the July-August holidays next year.
Asked about that option on Thursday, he said he did not want
to speculate on exact timing, effectively leaving the door open
to what exactly the bank saw as "mid-2017".
Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected no changes by the
bank's monetary policy department in part because three out of
seven members were absent.
The poll showed the market sees exit from the intervention
regime in the second half of 2017, with some players expecting
another delay until the end of the year.
"That will be in our view caused above all by muted economic
development in the euro zone - with the impact of Brexit next
year -- and slight slowdown in wage growth in the Czech
Republic," Ceska Sporitelna said in a note.
The approaching end of the weak currency regime and eventual
rise in interest rates from the current 0.05 percent is
supported by the bank's outlook that inflation will rise above 2
percent, the midpoint of its target, in the middle of the next
The consumer price index rose to 0.6 percent in August from
0.5 percent in July, exactly matching the central bank's
forecast. The economy grew by 2.6 percent in the second quarter
and the bank expects it to accelerate to 3.0 percent next year.
The bank reiterated the crown would not strengthen sharply
upon exit, due to pre-hedging by exporters, closing of
long-crown positions, and more central bank interventions that
would come if needed.
(Additional reporting by Jason Hovet; Editing by Richard