* WHAT: EIA'S Short-Term Energy Outlook
* WHEN: 12:00 p.m. (1700 GMT) on Jan. 11
* Analysts say 2012 oil demand growth won't be as strong
* China's move to rein in inflation may cool oil demand
* Higher oil prices seen cutting into some fuel demand
By Tom Doggett and Ayesha Rascoe
WASHINGTON, Jan 10 The U.S. government
releases on Tuesday its first outlook for 2012 global oil
demand, which analysts said may show weaker crude demand growth
for next year, especially if China cools its fuel consumption.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's report is the
first of three major oil supply and demand forecasts to be
released this month. The Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries is set to release its its monthly outlook
next week on Jan. 17, followed by the International Energy
Agency's report on Jan. 18.
The EIA's report gives traders their first glimpse of the
agency's energy projections for 2012.
Last month, the EIA lowered its forecast for 2011 world oil
demand growth, revising its outlook down 10,000 barrels per day
to a 1.43 million bpd increase.
The agency projected that world oil demand would hit 87.78
million bpd in 2011, compared with 86.35 million bpd in 2010.
That put the oil demand growth rate at 1.7 percent for this
year, down from the 2.4 percent growth in 2009. Oil consumption
grew by a higher percentage last year because demand was down
significantly in 2009 during the worst time of the global
Matt Smith, an energy analyst for Summit Energy in
Louisville, Kentucky, said while total global oil demand will
increase in 2012, the growth rate could be at a slower pace if
China's attempts to rein in inflation cools the developing
nation's booming economy.
"I don't think we're going to be going gangbusters into
2012," Smith said.
Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in
New York, said the 1.7 percent demand growth the EIA expected
for 2011 matches the average annual growth rate from 1993 to
"So while the market may treat rising demand as a bullish
phenomenon, this is really nothing extraordinary," he said.
"We'd expect to see average growth in the years ahead that runs
below the long-term average more than it runs above it."
Evans also cautioned that higher oil prices could cut into
oil consumption. "Higher prices are a drag on demand growth,"
Oil settled at $89.25 a barrel on Monday after hitting the
highest level in more than two years last week.
The IEA last month raised its world oil demand growth
forecast for 2011 to 1.32 million bpd, with consumption
expected to hit 88.8 million bpd.
Both the EIA and the IEA remain more bullish on world oil
demand than OPEC, which said it expected world oil demand this
year to increase 1.18 million bpd to 87.11 million bpd.
(Reporting by Tom Doggett and Ayesha Rascoe; Editing by