| LONDON, Sept 13
LONDON, Sept 13 Emerging equities rose on
Tuesday after losing almost 5 percent over the past two
sessions, though uncertainty over global central banks' policy
trajectory kept the pressure on, with many currencies staying in
Stocks gained 0.3 percent to move off one-month lows
after Federal Reserve policymaker Lael Brainard
effectively quashed prospects of a U.S. rate rise this month.
"The Fed speaker ...(appeased) the market a little bit,
meaning emerging currencies are trading better," said Luis
Costa, head of CEEMEA FX and debt strategy at Citi.
Costa said markets would still be keen to play interest rate
differentials between developed and emerging markets.
"The shape of things in G3... is still enabling global
liquidity and the switch from developed markets into EM - down
the road that can be painful when we hit the wall, but for the
time being we continue in the cycle," he added.
After steep falls on Monday the dollar rose slightly
while German and U.S. 10-year bond yields were just off
2-1/2-month highs, with expectations the Fed will raise rates
later this year still in place amid uncertainty over whether
European and Japanese central banks can further expand their
Futures still price in a 15 percent chance of a Fed hike at
its Sept. 20-21 meeting, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed.
Societe Generale noted the market was "risk-on with a
strongish dollar", adding: "The Treasury market didn't
over-react to Ms Brainard either, and 10-year yields are still
about 11 bps higher than they were a week ago."
Accordingly, stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial and
retail data provided little support, with Hong Kong shares
falling 0.3 percent and adding to the previous session's 3
percent fall, while mainland markets were flat
Asian currencies traded at multi-month troughs to the dollar
as local traders said the market preferred to stay long going
into next week's Fed meeting.
The South African rand eased 0.25 percent as deputy
finance minister Mcebisi Jonas said political rifts risked
harming the economy.
But it rose off session lows after data showed the current
account deficit contracted to a better-than-expected 3.1 percent
of GDP from a revised 5.3 percent in the first quarter.
Benchmark bond yields slipped 7 basis points.
In central Europe, focus was on the Czech crown where
investors are positioning for an end to the currency's 27 per
euro exchange rate cap. That has driven euro-crown
forwards to record lows in recent days, indicating the currency
will bust its ceiling in coming months .
The forwards weakened again on Tuesday but stayed off the
record lows as central bank governor Jiri Rusnok indicated he
was in no hurry to exit the regime.
Citi's Costa noted that recent data from Germany, Prague's
main investment and trade link, had been lacklustre and added:
"For the moment, I find it very difficult to trade the exit from
the cap, I think it is premature."
Neighbouring Hungary's forint fell 0.2 percent against the
euro after Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn
suggested the country be excluded from the European Union over
its anti-immigrant policies.
Ukraine dollar-bonds recovered some of the losses suffered
over the past two days, with issues
rising 2-3 cents across the curve, according to
Ukraine and Russia both indicated they were ready to talk
out of court regarding a dispute over a $3 billion bond that
Kiev owes to Moscow.
Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters
Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg
Emrg Mkt Indx 891.61 +2.20 +0.25 +12.27
Czech Rep 876.78 +6.70 +0.77 -8.32
Poland 1725.85 -5.52 -0.32 -7.17
Hungary 28163.30 -4.27 -0.02 +17.74
Romania 6952.28 +41.09 +0.59 -0.74
Greece 556.46 -0.79 -0.14 -11.86
Russia 977.75 -6.03 -0.61 +29.15
South Africa 46339.35 +45.28 +0.10 +1.18
Turkey 77053.54 -789.95 -1.01 +7.43
China 3023.79 +1.81 +0.06 -14.56
India 28353.54 -443.71 -1.54 +8.56
Currencies Latest Prev Local Local
close currency currency
% change % change
Czech Rep 27.02 27.01 -0.05 -0.08
Poland 4.35 4.34 -0.12 -2.12
Hungary 309.99 309.20 -0.25 +1.50
Romania 4.45 4.44 -0.09 +1.62
Serbia 123.11 123.17 +0.05 -1.33
Russia 64.82 64.51 -0.49 +12.54
Kazakhstan 338.17 337.82 -0.10 +0.69
Ukraine 26.20 26.59 +1.49 -8.58
South Africa 14.26 14.22 -0.27 +8.43
Kenya 101.10 101.20 +0.10 +1.09
Israel 3.77 3.77 -0.17 +3.08
Turkey 2.97 2.97 -0.15 -1.82
China 6.68 6.68 -0.02 -2.81
India 66.90 66.73 -0.25 -1.04
Brazil 3.25 3.25 -0.07 +21.92
Mexico 18.95 18.81 -0.70 -9.37
Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index
Sov'gn Debt EMBIG 361 0 .13 7 65.99 1
All data taken from Reuters at 09:34 GMT.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S.
close at 2130 GMT.
For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/jus35t
For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/weh36s
For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging Europe performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/jun28s
For GRAPHIC on MSCI frontier index performance 2016, see link.reuters.com/zyh97s
For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see
For TURKISH market report, see
For RUSSIAN market report, see )
(additional reporting by Karin Strohecker; editing by John