LONDON, March 29 (Reuters) - Money market expectations for a European Central Bank rate rise as early as December were scaled back on Wednesday after a report that policy makers are wary of changing their message.
Markets are also no longer fully pricing in a hike by March next year, after sources told Reuters that policymakers are wary of making any new change to their policy message in April.
Forward Eonia bank-to-bank rates dated for the ECB meeting on March 8 next year stood at around minus 0.28 percent, almost 8 basis points above the Eonia spot rate of minus 0.36 percent.
Analysts say this gap suggests markets are pricing in roughly an 80 percent chance of a rate hike in the ECB’s deposit rate by next March, having fully priced one in earlier this month after the ECB said a sense of urgency was over.
Forward Eonia rates dated for the ECB meeting in December suggests the chances of 10 basis point hike in rates are just below 50 percent, that’s down from around 70 percent earlier this week.
Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe, Editing by Abhinav Ramnarayan