FACTBOX - Thailand's political crisis -- what happens next?

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej vowed on Thursday not to quit, defying thousands of protesters who have occupied his official compound for 10 days in a bid to force him out.

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a motley group pressing for Samak's resignation and calling him an illegal proxy for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, said it would keep up the pressure.

The stock market has fallen 26 percent since the street protests began in May, although overseas influences such as the health of the U.S. export market have also been factors.

Thailand's currency, the baht, hit a nine-month low against the dollar last month and continuing political uncertainty is likely to hold it down.

Following are scenarios for how the crisis may play out, although none are likely to heal the rift in Thai society between the rural and urban poor who support Thaksin, ousted in a 2006 coup, and the Bangkok middle classes who despise him.

SAMAK CALLS SNAP ELECTION

- Samak dissolves parliament to call a snap election in the hope it will take the wind out of the PAD's sails.

But, with his People Power Party, a replacement for Thaksin's disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, almost certain to win and lead the next government, the PAD would be unlikely to give up and go home.

A snap poll would become more likely once parliament has passed a new budget, expected later this week, replenishing government coffers for a possible election campaign.