Snap poll holds risks for Brown

By Adrian Croft - Analysis

BLACKPOOL (Reuters) - Prime Minister Gordon Brown stoked speculation of an early election on Tuesday by announcing 500 more British troops would come home from Iraq, but analysts say a snap poll would be a big risk for Brown.

Brown's announcement during a surprise visit to Iraq that troop numbers there could fall to 4,500 by year-end could help push aside the unpopular conflict as an issue in voters' minds if he goes ahead with an election next month.

"He is trying to suggest Iraq has been and gone," Strathclyde University politics professor John Curtice said.

Brown's trip overshadowed the Conservatives' annual conference in northwestern England, where party leaders have also moved into campaign mode, announcing voter-pleasing tax cuts and singling out Europe as an election battleground.

The opposition Conservatives criticised Brown's Iraq visit as a "pre-election photo opportunity" and questioned its timing.

Former Conservative Prime Minister John Major urged Brown to end the "feverish and foolish speculation" about an early poll.

"He's letting the speculation run riot ... It is clearly an attempt at the destabilisation of the opposition parties," Major told the BBC.

The ruling Labour Party's opinion poll lead of up to 11 points makes it tempting for Brown to call a snap election, two and a half years before he has to, in the hope of inflicting a fourth consecutive general election defeat on the Conservatives.