December 15, 2016 / 10:44 AM / 8 months ago


(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: 2017 Outlook: China Banks here TAIPEI/HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, December 15 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2016年12月5日發布于:<a href="">Fitch: China's Banks Face Capital Pressures and Structural Risks 惠譽評級對2017年中國銀行業的行業展望為負面,反映出惠譽認為盈利能力疲軟和信貸增長強勁將使資本水平繼續面臨壓力。居高並持續上升的企業部門槓桿率仍將是中國銀行業 面臨的關鍵風險。 為了減輕企業借款人債務負擔的措施導致中國解決債務問題的進程向後推遲,此類措施包括低利率、貸款展期、債轉股及審慎管控放鬆。只要GDP增長目標的達成是依賴信貸的支持 ,那麼槓桿率就將會繼續升高,特別是企業部門的槓桿率。我們已經上調了對槓桿率增幅的預期,惠譽調整後的社會融資總量/GDP可能在2016年底時達到258%,並在20 17年底時達到274%。 政府當局增加居民貸款的做法可能有助於分散風險。由於住房抵押貸款的貸款價值比較低、家庭部門槓桿率較低和儲蓄率較高,使得居民貸款相比企業貸款更安全。然而,住房抵押貸 款的快速增長推動住宅房產價格急劇上升,並且有可能使企業槓桿率進一步升高,因為企業借款人以房地產作為貸款的抵押品。此外,要求銀行為產能過剩行業中面臨困難的借款人提 供信貸的政策指引也會影響銀行的風險管理和治理。 惠譽預計2017年不良貸款率和關注類貸款比率將繼續升高。銀行盈利能力將繼續低迷並受到壓力,這是因為一年期貸款基準利率可能會再有一次下調,且存款可能進一步轉移至理 財產品。理財產品目前占銀行系統存款的17%,並且是銀行業的資金和流動性風險來源之一。 惠譽預測利潤增長將持平,而風險加權資產會持續雙位數的增長,這代表資本水平仍將面臨壓力。已公布的其他一級資本工具和二級資本工具的發行量不足以支持銀行資產負債表的擴 張速度,而股權融資也將存在困難,因為淨資產收益率下降且中國的中期增長具有不確定性。 惠譽此前的研究預計一次性解決債務問題可能導致7.4萬億 – 13.6萬億的資本缺口,相當於GDP的11% - 20%左右。如果無效信貸比率繼續維持在目前的水平,且沒有額外募集資本,那麼資本缺口可能進一步擴大。 中資銀行的生存力評級範圍為‘bb’至‘b’,反映了惠譽對資本和資產質量的數個重大風險的基本情景假設。除非運營環境變得更為穩定,並反映在放緩的信貸增速和提升的損失 吸收能力上,否則這些風險將會繼續存在。惠譽的穩定評級展望反映出我們對國家支持的預期,而國家支持仍然是中資銀行的發行人違約評級的唯一評級驅動因素。在地方政府債務置 換之外,更多的企業債務最終可能也會轉移至國家的資產負債表上。 本報告《2017年展望:中國銀行業》請參見<a href=""> 或點擊本新聞稿上方鏈接。 聯繫人: Katie Chen(陳冠如) 聯席董事 金融機構評級 +886 2 8175 7614 澳洲商惠譽有限公司台灣分公司 台北敦化北路205號13層1306室 Jonathan Cornish 董事總經理 金融機構評級 +852 2263 9901 Dan Martin 高級分析師 Fitch Wire +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email:; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: 詳情參見<a href=""> 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE. Copyright © 2016 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch’s factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third- party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch’s ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports, Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts. As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or forecast was issued or affirmed. The information in this report is provided “as is” without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the requirements of a recipient of the report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers. For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001

0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below