January 9, 2017 / 2:42 AM / 6 months ago

惠譽將中國奧園的評級由‘B+’上調至‘BB-’,展望穩定

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(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG, January 08 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2016年12月29日發布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1017137">Fitch Upgrades China Aoyuan to 'BB-' from 'B+'; Outlook Stable 惠譽評級已將中國奧園地產集團股份有限公司(奧園)的長期外幣發行人違約評級由‘B+’上調至‘BB-’級,展望穩定。惠譽同時將奧園的高級無抵押評級和奧園現有美元債券 的評級由‘B+’上調至‘BB-’級。 自2016年1月惠譽將奧園的評級置于評級展望正面觀察狀態後,奧園的合同銷售額繼續穩健增長。銷量的增長受到公司執行快速業務周轉策略、穩定的經營效率、保持穩步的土地 收購和維持健康的財務狀況的支撐。規模的擴大和信用狀況的改善使得奧園與其他‘BB-’級的中國住宅地產商具有很強可比性,且我們認為未來12個月內奧園的信用狀況將保持 良好。 關鍵評級驅動因素 強勁的銷售業績:惠譽估計奧園2016年的合同銷售額將增至245億人民幣,此前2015年公司的合同銷售額已較2012年增至三倍,達152億人民幣。由於公司繼續執行 快速的業務周轉策略,2016年1月至11月期間,公司的合同銷售額同比增長70%,達222億人民幣。基於公司的項目預售計劃,惠譽預計2017年公司的合同銷售額將繼 續增長,但增速可能較2016年放緩。 2016年,奧園的合同銷售額中約50%仍然來自廣東省,但公司正在謹慎地探索在其他省份及海外的機遇。 穩定的財務狀況:奧園與其他快速增長的同業企業的不同之處是,儘管快速擴張但奧園一直保持著健康的槓桿率。按照凈債務與調整後存貨之比衡量,截至2016年6月底時其槓桿 率為29.8%,我們認為2016年底時的這一比率將維持穩定。惠譽還預計截至2016年底,奧園的銷售效率(按照過去12個月的合同銷售額與總債務之比計算)將由201 5年底時的0.9倍提升至1.3倍。惠譽預計奧園將繼續執行其快速的業務周轉模式及有節制的土地收購策略;因此在未來12至18個月內,公司的財務狀況將保持良好,這將支 撐公司的信用狀況。 審慎的土地收購:惠譽認為奧園將繼續保持目前的土地收購節奏,儘管其合同銷售額已經大幅增長。惠譽預計公司將繼續主要考察在珠江三角洲、華中及長江三角洲地區的土地購買機 會。2016年上半年,奧園收購了四個地塊,土地成本共計53億人民幣,2016年下半土地購買仍保持截至。惠譽估計全年的購地款仍將對於合同銷售額的40%,合同銷售額 已經增長;這將為公司未來的土地收購留有充足的空間。 充足的土地儲備:截至2016年6月底,奧園的可售建築總面積約達1300萬平方米。按貨值計算,約20%的土地儲備位於三四線城市,但這一比例持續降低,且土地儲備的質 量逐年提升。此外,奧園在三四線城市的土地儲備的一半以上位於廣州以外的小城市,但主要針對廣州市的買家。惠譽預計這些廣州衛星城市的合同銷售額將比較令人滿意,因為從廣 州可以很容易地抵達這些地區,並且公司過往的銷售記錄良好。 利潤率小幅下滑:惠譽預計在2016年後,奧園的EBITDA利潤率將由此前的25%逐漸降低至20%至25%的範圍。這是因為在過去高利潤率產品所占比重更大、土地成本 升高帶來壓力,並且經營規模擴大導致銷售成本、一般性開支和行政管理費用升高。 流動性水平健康:目前奧園的流動性狀況強勁,支撐著公司的擴張計劃。截至2016年6月底,公司現金總額為102億人民幣,短期債務僅為41億人民幣。同時,公司還在努力 改善債務結構。近期的境內及境外融資計劃均多樣化,改善了公司的債務年期組合併降低了融資成本。截至2016年上半年,短期債務僅占總債務的21%左右,公司的加權平均融 資成本為8.4%。我們預計到2016年底,奧園仍將保持強勁的流動性水平,融資成本將進一步降低至8%。 關鍵評級假設 本發行人評級研究中惠譽的關鍵評級假設包括: - 2017-2018年公司的土地收購速度保持穩定,約為合同銷售額的40%-50% - 對合同銷售的預計是基於未來12-18個月內的可出售資源。合同銷售額繼續增長,但增速可能較2016年放緩 - 由於高利潤率產品的占比升高,2017年公司的合同銷售平均售價將小幅升高 - 奧園將保持快速業務周轉和高水平現金流周轉的模式 評級敏感性 負面:可能單獨或共同導致惠譽採取負面評級行動的未來發展因素包括: - EBITDA利潤率持續低於20%(2016年上半年為23.4%) - 凈債務與調整後存貨之比持續高於40%(2016年6月底時為29.8%) - 合同銷售額與總債務之比持續低於1.2倍(2016年6月底時為1.0倍) - 土地儲備中可銷售總建築面積持續小於年合同銷售總建築面積的3.5倍(截至2016年6月底的12個月內為5.6倍) 正面:預計不會採取正面評級行動,除非奧園的規模顯著擴大、在多個區域建立起核心市場且沒有影響到財務指標,這在未來12-18個月內實現的可能性較小。 完整評級行動列表 長期外幣發行人違約評級由‘B+’上調至‘BB-’級,展望穩定 高級無抵押評級由‘B+’上調至‘BB-’級 3億美元、票息率11.25%、將於2019年到期的高級票據的評級由‘B+’上調至‘BB-’級 2億美元、票息率10.875%、將於2018年到期的高級票據的評級由‘B+’上調至‘BB-’級 2.5億美元、票息率6.525%、將於2019年到期的高級票據的評級由‘B+’上調至‘BB-’級 聯繫人: 首席分析師 Vicki Shen (沈璽) 董事 +852 2263 9914 惠譽國際評級有限公司 香港中環德輔道中68號 萬宜大廈19樓 第二分析師 Jenny Wenjun Huang(黃文君) 聯席董事 +8525 2263 9922 評級委員會主席 Su Aik Lim(林樹毅) 高級董事 +852 2263 9914 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 詳情參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 Applicable Criteria Criteria for Rating Non-Financial Corporates (pub. 27 Sep 2016) here Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status here Endorsement Policy here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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