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7 months ago
惠譽: 台灣銀行業移轉曝險;中國關聯風險下降
February 6, 2017 / 5:51 AM / 7 months ago

惠譽: 台灣銀行業移轉曝險;中國關聯風險下降

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) TAIPEI/SINGAPORE, February 06 (Fitch) 惠譽國際信用評等公司今日表示,台灣銀行業在過去兩年來已縮減對中國大陸直接曝險的部位,有助提升整體體質以因應各項事件造成連帶影響的風險,包含中國債務積壓、人民幣貶 值壓力,或兩岸關係可能惡化等。 台灣銀行業整體中國曝險佔總資產比重由2014年底的高點8.4%,降至2016年底的6.2%,且此趨勢可能持續。主管機關目前規定各銀行對中國曝險總值應低於其股東權 益,此規定不太可能在近期內放寬。政府股東不樂見公股行庫積極增長中國曝險,且隨時檢視該曝險的信用品質。此外,考量中國經濟成長趨緩與兩岸關係在2016年5月新政府執 政後降溫等因素,中國曝險的成長將更受限。 台灣銀行業目前的整體體質相較於幾年前已有所提升,可因應人民幣的相關波動。銀行目標可贖回遠期契約(Target Redemption Forward,TRF;即一種結構型衍生性金融商品,部分投資人用來做人民幣的避險或匯率套利交易) 的銷售量,從2014年的熱潮明顯衰退。惠譽認為TRF的銷量將維持疲弱,係反映主管機關對銀行不當銷售與套利的嚴格規定,以及人民幣走勢的不確定性。多數銀行對於人民幣 部位採中立策略,且惠譽認為,即便人民幣貶值幅度大於惠譽目前估值,TRF的潛在損失相較於銀行整體獲利而言仍有限。 惠譽預期對台灣銀行業而言,來自中國較大的衝擊為間接波及台灣借款人的還款能力。台灣對中國與香港的出口貿易約佔其出口總值近40%,且對台灣製造廠商而言中國仍為一大生 產據點。 中國曝險的縮減適逢台灣銀行業積極佈局亞太地區新興市場—包含柬埔寨、越南與菲律賓,以期透過這些市場快速的經濟成長與較高利差而獲利。台灣對中國以外的亞太地區新興市場 曝險雖僅佔銀行業總資產的2.3%,2015到2016的年成長率已達約20%,且台灣當局持續鼓勵進一步擴張。主管機關已計劃促進銀行對亞太地區的18個經濟體增加放款 ,此計劃屬2016年12月公佈之‘新南向政策’之一部分。惠譽預期銀行對東南亞國家協會(東協)放款會特別增加,在2017年到2020年間將以年成長率8%的速度顯著 成長,相較於2014年到2016年間國內總放款約3%的年成長率。 積極擴張亞太地區新興市場有助銀行降低其中國曝險集中度,然可能對台灣銀行業的放款品質造成壓力,主因這些市場通常而言公司治理較弱,且資訊透明度較差。 註:此為中文譯本,若與原英文版本有任何出入,請以英文版為準。 Cherry Huang Director Financial Institutions + 886 2 8175 7603 Fitch Australia Pty Ltd, Taiwan Branch Suite 1306, 13F, 205, Tun Hwa North Road Taipei City, Taiwan Jonathan Lee Senior Director Financial Institutions +886 2 8175 7601 Dan Martin Senior Analyst Fitch Wire +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 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