Oil's record jump defies single explanation

By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil's record jump to $139 (71 pounds) a barrel at the end of last week defies any single explanation, although some leading analysts and producers predict the price could yet go higher.

Crude jumped $10.75 on Friday to $139.12, taking two-day gains to more than $16. Some put the move down to comments by an Israeli minister about a possible attack on Iran, the world's fourth-largest producer.

Others cited strong oil market fundamentals.

"There is a strong fundamental baseline to all of this," said Kevin Norrish, oil analyst at Barclays Capital. "On top of that, Iran has come back onto people's radar screens."

Iran's dispute with the West over Tehran's nuclear work had until last week faded in importance to oil investors, although the comments from Israel's transport minister Shaul Mofaz sparked a scramble to buy.

Banks such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays are prominent among those saying oil market fundamentals are a key factor in rising prices. Producers, including OPEC, tend to blame factors other than supply, such as speculation.

Citigroup, in a note on Monday, said the broader themes behind oil's latest jump were probably disappointing growth in supply and robust world demand, and prices could rally even further.

World demand, while crimped by record prices, is still expected to rise by about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, while supply from producers outside OPEC is at risk of posting no growth, the bank said.