Greenspan sees more than 50 percent chance of U.S. recession

By Sonya Dowsett

MADRID (Reuters) - There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told El Pais newspaper in an interview published on Sunday.

However, the U.S. has not yet entered recessionary state marked by sharp falls in orders, strong rises in unemployment and intensive weakening of the economy, he said.

"We would have to see signs of this intensification: there are some, but not many yet," he said. "Therefore ... I would not describe the situation we are in as a recession, although the chances that we'll have one are more than 50 percent."

A sharp downturn in the U.S. housing market has led to a full-blown credit crisis that has reverberated throughout the U.S. financial system.

The economy has become increasingly important in the U.S. presidential campaign, topping the list of voters' concerns heading into the November election.

Greenspan, the U.S. Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006, endorsed the Republican presidential candidate John McCain in the interview.

"I'm Republican and I support John McCain, who I know very well and who I respect a lot," he said.

The economies of the United States and the European Union were at a crossroads after a long period of economic growth without inflation, he said.