FACTBOX - Scenarios for Serbia after ambivalent vote

Mon May 12, 2008 1:14pm BST
 
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(Reuters) - An alliance of pro-Western parties led by the Democratic Party won first place in Serbia's general election on Sunday, slightly ahead of the nationalist Radicals.

Results indicated a scramble to clinch a parliamentary majority and a new governing coalition. Here are some scenarios for what could happen next, with the strength of each possible grouping in the 250-seat parliament:

PRO-WESTERN COALITION WITH TACIT OR EXPLICIT NATIONALIST

SUPPORT

SEATS: between 123 and 129

The only way for the Democrats to form a majority government is through an alliance with several ethnic minority parties, and one of two minor partners: the small, ultra-liberal Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Socialists, the once-dominant party of the late Slobodan Milosevic.

A Democrats-LDP coalition would be just shy of a majority. The Socialists have said they cannot formally ally with the LDP -- the only party that says Serbia should accept the secession of Kosovo -- but they could be persuaded to support the coalition in parliament in exchange for concessions.

Political sources say the Democrats would prefer to woo the Socialists into an outright coalition, without the LDP. Such a government would have a thin majority and would probably be tested by disagreements over key issues, such as Kosovo and Serbia's EU future.

THREE-PARTY NATIONALIST COALITION  Continued...

 
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