Retail outlook worst since early 1990s

LONDON (Reuters) - The next 12 months are likely to be the slowest period for retailers since the early 1990s, researchers Experian said on Friday.

The Experian National Footfall Index, which measures the number of shoppers visiting Britain's high streets and malls, fell 2.6 percent in July from the same month last year, the third consecutive decline.

Compared with June, footfall was up 2.7 percent.

"Even with oil prices coming off a recent high, consumers will be squeezed by high petrol and food prices, rising home heating bills come winter and the continuation of the credit crunch until well into 2009," Experian Senior Economist Matthew Sherwood said in a statement.

"We forecast that sales volumes will contract in July-September, the first such fall since early 2006. The next 12 months are shaping up to be the slowest period for retailers since the early 1990s."

Ernst & Young retail analyst Jonathan Foster agreed.

"Our quarterly surveys have shown that there were 29 profit warnings by general retailers in the first six months of 2008, the highest number of warnings ever recorded by the sector in the first half.

"In line with deteriorating economic fundamentals, we believe even tougher times lie ahead with little evidence of a retail recovery until 2010," Foster said.

(Reporting by Mark Potter; Editing by Jason Neely)