UPDATE 1-Euro zone inflation jump confirmed, ECB seen on hold

Thu Nov 15, 2007 11:30am GMT
 
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(Recasts with economists' comments)

By Jan Strupczewski

BRUSSELS, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Energy and food prices pushed euro zone inflation in October to its highest in more than two years, but while economists expect this to trigger hawkish ECB talk, they see no interest rate rises as the economy slows.

The European Union statistics office confirmed on Thursday its earlier estimate that consumer prices in the 13 countries using the euro rose 0.5 percent month-on-month and 2.6 percent year-on-year, in line with economists' expectations.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark responded quickly, telling the Bavarian Banking Association in a prepared speech that upside risks to inflation had increased and the ECB was ready to raise rates if necessary.

But he also said financial market turmoil could dampen growth, which analysts interpreted as backing expectations that rates would stay on hold for some time to come.

"I don't think we will see a rate hike in the end. The ECB will keep on talking hawkish, but these are two different things," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, economist at CIBC World Markets.

October's annual inflation was the highest since September 2005. In December that year, the ECB, which wants to keep inflation just below 2 percent, started raising interest rates from 2.0 percent to the current 4.0 percent.

"The ECB will obviously be far from happy with the October inflation data," Global Insight economist Howard Archer said.  Continued...

 

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