Brown expected to ride out treaty storm

By Adrian Croft - Analysis

LISBON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Gordon Brown faces an uproar over his refusal to allow a referendum on Europe's new treaty, but analysts expect him to stick to his guns in the hope that the row will subside by the next election.

Right-wing newspapers labelled Brown a "traitor" for agreeing to a European Union treaty on Friday that they say hands over extensive British powers to Brussels, while refusing to allow Britons a vote.

The Conservatives accuse Brown of breaking a promise made by his predecessor Tony Blair in 2005 to call a referendum on the now defunct EU constitution.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank, believes Brown will hold firm in resisting calls for a referendum.

"It will be difficult for Gordon, but I think he can face down the popular press and I think he will. If he caved in, he would look incredibly weak," Grant told Reuters.

Richard Whitman, politics professor at the University of Bath, also believes that Brown will not give way on the referendum. "It would become a vote on Gordon Brown rather than on the reform treaty," he said.

The Conservatives, newly confident after Brown gave up any idea of an early general election this month when the Conservatives surged in the opinion polls, will continue to use the referendum as a stick to beat Brown with, Whitman said.

The Conservatives are using the issue to portray Brown as a devious politician who is not to be trusted.