Iraq's Sadr cannot be defeated by force: experts

By Peter Graff - Analysis

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr says the next step is "open war". The U.S.-backed government shows no sign of backing down.

Suddenly, after many months in which the news from Iraq has been mostly about falling violence, the country is reeling towards a rebellion by millions of Sadr's followers against a government crackdown on his black-masked Mehdi Army militia.

Ultimately, say experts, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki may never be able to defeat the popular cleric by force, and his attempt to do so could make Iraq far more unstable at a time when U.S. troops are reducing in numbers.

So far, Maliki has averted disaster.

After embarrassing early mishaps in their month-old campaign in the southern oil hub of Basra, government forces have scored a number of military gains. They now control Sadr's main strongholds in Basra, and residents report that the iron grip of religious militia on life there has eased.

Maliki, also a Shi'ite, has won full backing for the crackdown, from both Washington and a broad range of Iraqi politicians including his former Sunni Arab foes.

But the young anti-American cleric has a devoted following.

His strongholds in the poorest Shi'ite parts of Baghdad are a danger zone for troops, and his heavily armed fighters are itching for battle, especially after Sadr threatened "open war until liberation" unless the government halted the offensive.