Lebanese seen holding back from violence for now

By Yara Bayoumy - Analysis

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Fear of violence looms over Lebanon after parliament failed to elect a new head of state on Friday, but analysts say blood will not flow just yet since rival political groups have too much to lose.

The election was delayed again in hope that a deal will emerge but that means the country will not have a president for at least a week, raising fears Lebanon will once again be engulfed in violence, 17 years after the end of the civil war.

But the opposition, led by Shi'ite Muslim Hezbollah, and the ruling coalition, led by Sunni Muslim Saad al-Hariri, are willing to stay in a vacuum for the time being as long as the channels of negotiation are open and there are chances for a deal, decreasing the threat of immediate violence.

Paul Salem, director of the Beirut branch of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, doubted either side would take any provocative actions for the time being.

"Nobody will make a move to escalate anything. It is lose-lose for both of the sides. March 14 (ruling coalition) is not strong enough to win... Hezbollah and Iran don't want to be in a Sunni-Shi'ite civil war," Salem said.

The majority and the opposition had threatened to take unilateral measures if no president was elected and they have accused each other of arming and training their followers.

The anti-Syrian ruling coalition has said it may elect a president outside parliament using its absolute majority, a move the opposition has said is tantamount to a coup because the vote would not take place in parliament or have the needed quorum.

Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, has supported the idea of outgoing President Emile Lahoud handing over his powers to army chief General Michel Suleiman.