Win or lose, Socialists face change

By Crispian Balmer - Analysis

PARIS (Reuters) - The French Socialist party stands at a crossroads ahead of next Sunday's presidential election, facing the possibility of a third consecutive defeat and struggling to adapt to a rapidly changing world.

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal came second in the opening round of the election on April 22 and will need centrist support if she is to have any chance of beating her rightist rival Nicolas Sarkozy at the run-off on May 6.

But leftist veterans still view the Communist Party as their natural ally and see any ties with the centre as a betrayal of the Socialist party, which gave France the 35-hour work week and helped shape its generous welfare system.

Ignoring groans from diehard party faithful, Royal has nonetheless reached out to centrist leader Francois Bayrou, who was eliminated from the first round ballot and whose 18 percent share of the vote holds the key to the second round run-off.

Her manoeuvring has helped her narrow the gap against Sarkozy in the polls, but it may be too little too late, with Royal trying to reposition her party in just two weeks -- a task that took other European Socialists years of hard work.

If she fails, leftwingers will no doubt blame it on her flirt with the centre, but analysts say her party will have to reform regardless of the outcome next Sunday.

"The Socialist Party will be obliged to refound itself more towards the centre because the left flank is too weak," said Gerard Grunberg, a political scientist and co-author of the recent book "France heading towards a bipartisan state?"

"If they don't, the risk is that the right will remain in power for many, many years."