GLOBAL MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-Policy promise key for risk rally
By Natsuko Waki
LONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Investors may take heart next week from policymaker pledges to keep easier monetary policy for the time being just as world stocks, testing the sustainability of the 2009 risk rally, face their first weekly loss since July.
The outcome of the meeting of G20 finance chiefs in London, a gathering of G10 central bankers in Basel and central bank policy verdicts from Britain, New Zealand and Canada might highlight tensions between countries wanting exit strategies and others warning against them.
The rally in world stocks, measured by MSCI .MIWD00000PUS, is hitting speed bumps after they touched a 10-month high last week and the benchmark index is on track to post a weekly loss -- only its fifth since March. According to EPFR Global, investors pulled $4.95 billion out of global equity funds in the week ending September 2 and committed $5.06 billion to fixed income funds.
"Global equity valuations are not yet stretched, but no longer offer the extreme valuation opportunity that was presented earlier this year," said Tristan Hanson, manager of asset allocation and strategy at Ashburton.
Ashburton has just reduced equity weighting to 30 percent from 45 percent.
"There will be less downside risk in the event of an equity market correction, something we view as more likely today than a month ago. The possibility of a correction should not be surprising as equity markets have just provided three years worth of returns, or 20 per cent, since the July lows," he said.
"The 12 month outlook for global equities is still positive in our view, and there is scope for a significant improvement in corporate profitability... When we believe another compelling opportunity has arisen to increase equity weightings once again, we will act accordingly."
According to Standard & Poor's, all 46 equity markets it tracks have posted gains since January, with 14 markets up at least 50 percent and another 22 markets up more than 25 percent. Continued...
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