REFILE-Ukraine faces big gas bill rise even with oil drop

(Refiles to fix typo in "remaining", fourth paragraph)

LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Russia's insistence Ukraine should pay market prices for gas means an increase of at least 22 percent in Kiev's gas bill this year, forecasts by energy consultants Poyry imply.

Russia told Ukraine on Wednesday gas supplies to Kiev, cut since Jan. 1, would resume when both sides signed a new contract at European market prices. Until now Ukraine has paid much less than western European consumers.

After weeks of fierce rowing with Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM), the head of Ukraine's gas company Naftogaz said on Thursday he believed the only remaining differences with Gazprom were economic ones.

Naftogaz has argued against any big increases in its gas bills this year, pointing to falling prices for European buyers on oil-indexed supply contracts.

Poyry forecasts the price of Russian gas delivered to Germany should fall by 50 percent in the first six months of 2009 from $440 at the end of last year.

Even if Gazprom were to agree to sell Ukraine gas now at the price Germany might get it for by summer, it would still mean Ukraine's gas bill swelling more than a fifth when the country is facing severe economic crisis.

"Purely economically, Gazprom has got a very strong case to get the Ukrainians onto market prices," David Cox, chief consultant at Poyry Energy Consulting in London said.

"The problem is that Ukraine can't afford to pay fully western prices."