METALS-Copper ends down on dlr bounce, China data on tap
* Copper stockpiles largest since early May
* Investors await China copper import data
* Nickel hits seven-week low on poor stainless outlook (Changes headline, recasts, adds NEW YORK to dateline, updates with New York closing copper prices and broker comments)
By Chris Kelly and Rebekah Curtis
NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Copper settled a shade lower in erratic trade on Tuesday as the dollar steadied above 15-month lows against a basket of currencies, while nickel fell to a seven-week trough on a poor stainless steel demand outlook.
Copper for December delivery HGZ9 on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division ended down 0.60 cent at $2.9615 a lb, after dealing between $2.9370 and $2.9965.
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for three-months delivery MCU3 shed $10 to close at $6,530 a tonne.
"The strength in the dollar today was really the story of the day more than anything," said Pat Donnelly, senior broker with Olympus Futures in Chicago. "The commodities have had a pretty decent run ... I think you have to keep an eye on the dollar. If we break through key support at 75.10 level, we could be blasting higher again."
The dollar .DXY bounced off a 15-month low but continued to look out of favor amid expectations benchmark U.S. interest rates will remain near zero into 2010 as the economy recovers from a severe recession. [USD/]
A weak dollar makes industrial metals cheaper for local currency holders.
The dollar's fall, along with strong Chinese demand, has helped copper more than double in value this year.
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on key import data from China, the world's top consumer of copper.
"Chinese data later this week will definitely be something that will give clues for nearby direction (of the market)," said Michael Khosrowpour, an analyst at Triland.
China's October imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products are expected to fall after an unexpectedly strong inflow in September, hit by poor margins for spot imports and delays to contracted shipments. [ID:nHKG157207]
"Given the price incentive to import copper into China on an arbitrage basis has broadly disappeared in recent months and stocks have risen in the region ... the domestic market appears plentifully supplied," Barclays Capital said in a note.
Traders say the Chinese demand is likely to see Codelco raise term copper premiums to the country for next year, after lifting them for Japanese and South Korean customers. [ID:nT230071]
Casting shadows over the demand outlook has been the near-steady rise in LME copper inventories since July. Data on Tuesday showed stocks jump 4,675 tonnes to a six-month high of 394,150 tonnes. <O#LME-STOCKS>. Copper inventories in Shanghai rose to their highest levels in 5-1/2 years last week.
DEMAND WOES SINK NICKEL
Nickel MNI3 prices fell to a seven week-low of $16,800 a tonne on mounting concerns that stainless steel mills were cutting back production. The metal closed at 16,825 from Monday's $17,430.
"Stainless steel producers in China have probably backed away in the market," Citi analyst David Thurtell said. "Stainless steel demand in the last month or two has fallen away a bit ... but world demand should pick up so nickel's downside from here should be relatively limited."
About 60 percent of global nickel production is used by stainless steel producers.
Among other industrial metals, aluminum MAL3 ended up $8 at $1,960 a tonne.
Aluminum prices should remain weak into 2010, with smelters expected to restart some idled production capacity despite a surplus already overhanging the global market, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch research note said. [ID:nN0983908]
Zinc MZN3 edged up to $2,161 from $2,160 and battery material lead MPB3 slipped $12 to $2,288. Tin MSN3 ended up $75 at $14,825 a tonne. Metal Prices at 2007 GMT Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2008 Ytd Pct
move COMEX Cu 295.70 -0.45 -0.15 139.50 111.97 LME Alum 1954.00 2.00 +0.10 1535.00 27.30 LME Cu 6530.00 -10.00 -0.15 3060.00 113.40 LME Lead 2275.00 -25.00 -1.09 999.00 127.73 LME Nickel 16900.00 -530.00 -3.04 11700.00 44.44 LME Tin 14825.00 75.00 +0.51 10700.00 38.55 LME Zinc 2164.75 4.75 +0.22 1208.00 79.20 SHFE Alu 15120.00 -65.00 -0.43 11540.00 31.02 SHFE Cu* 50740.00 -570.00 -1.11 23840.00 112.84 SHFE Zin 16655.00 -310.00 -1.83 10120.00 64.58 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Additional reporting by Humeyra Pamuk, Editing by Veronica Brown and Jim Marshall)
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