METALS-Copper ends down on dlr bounce, China data on tap

Tue Nov 10, 2009 8:53pm GMT
[-] Text [+]
 * Copper stockpiles largest since early May
 * Investors await China copper import data
 * Nickel hits seven-week low on poor stainless outlook
 (Changes headline, recasts, adds NEW YORK to dateline, updates
with New York closing copper prices and broker comments)
 By Chris Kelly and Rebekah Curtis
 NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Copper settled a shade
lower in erratic trade on Tuesday as the dollar steadied above
15-month lows against a basket of currencies, while nickel fell to
a seven-week trough on a poor stainless steel demand outlook.
 Copper for December delivery HGZ9 on the New York Mercantile
Exchange's COMEX division ended down 0.60 cent at $2.9615 a lb,
after dealing between $2.9370 and $2.9965.
 On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for three-months
delivery MCU3 shed $10 to close at $6,530 a tonne.
 "The strength in the dollar today was really the story of the
day more than anything," said Pat Donnelly, senior broker with
Olympus Futures in Chicago. "The commodities have had a pretty
decent run ... I think you have to keep an eye on the dollar. If
we break through key support at 75.10 level, we could be blasting
higher again."
 The dollar .DXY bounced off a 15-month low but continued to
look out of favor amid expectations benchmark U.S. interest rates
will remain near zero into 2010 as the economy recovers from a
severe recession. [USD/]
 A weak dollar makes industrial metals cheaper for local
currency holders.
 The dollar's fall, along with strong Chinese demand, has
helped copper more than double in value this year.
 Looking ahead, all eyes will be on key import data from China,
the world's top consumer of copper.
 "Chinese data later this week will definitely be something
that will give clues for nearby direction (of the market)," said
Michael Khosrowpour, an analyst at Triland.
 China's October imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished
copper products are expected to fall after an unexpectedly strong
inflow in September, hit by poor margins for spot imports and
delays to contracted shipments. [ID:nHKG157207]
 "Given the price incentive to import copper into China on an
arbitrage basis has broadly disappeared in recent months and
stocks have risen in the region ... the domestic market appears
plentifully supplied," Barclays Capital said in a note.
 Traders say the Chinese demand is likely to see Codelco raise
term copper premiums to the country for next year, after lifting
them for Japanese and South Korean customers. [ID:nT230071]
 Casting shadows over the demand outlook has been the
near-steady rise in LME copper inventories since July. Data on
Tuesday showed stocks jump 4,675 tonnes to a six-month high of
394,150 tonnes. <O#LME-STOCKS>. Copper inventories in Shanghai
rose to their highest levels in 5-1/2 years last week.
 DEMAND WOES SINK NICKEL
 Nickel MNI3 prices fell to a seven week-low of $16,800 a
tonne on mounting concerns that stainless steel mills were cutting
back production. The metal closed at 16,825 from Monday's
$17,430.
 "Stainless steel producers in China have probably backed away
in the market," Citi analyst David Thurtell said. "Stainless steel
demand in the last month or two has fallen away a bit ... but
world demand should pick up so nickel's downside from here should
be relatively limited."
 About 60 percent of global nickel production is used by
stainless steel producers.
 Among other industrial metals, aluminum MAL3 ended up $8 at
$1,960 a tonne.
 Aluminum prices should remain weak into 2010, with smelters
expected to restart some idled production capacity despite a
surplus already overhanging the global market, a Bank of America
Merrill Lynch research note said. [ID:nN0983908]
 Zinc MZN3 edged up to $2,161 from $2,160 and battery
material lead MPB3 slipped $12 to $2,288. Tin MSN3 ended up
$75 at $14,825 a tonne.
 Metal Prices at 2007 GMT
 Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2008   Ytd Pct
                                                         move
 COMEX Cu       295.70       -0.45     -0.15     139.50    111.97
 LME Alum      1954.00        2.00     +0.10    1535.00     27.30
 LME Cu        6530.00      -10.00     -0.15    3060.00    113.40
 LME Lead      2275.00      -25.00     -1.09     999.00    127.73
 LME Nickel   16900.00     -530.00     -3.04   11700.00     44.44
 LME Tin      14825.00       75.00     +0.51   10700.00     38.55
 LME Zinc      2164.75        4.75     +0.22    1208.00     79.20
 SHFE Alu     15120.00      -65.00     -0.43   11540.00     31.02
 SHFE Cu*     50740.00     -570.00     -1.11   23840.00    112.84
 SHFE Zin     16655.00     -310.00     -1.83   10120.00     64.58
 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
 * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
 SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
 (Additional reporting by Humeyra Pamuk, Editing by Veronica Brown
and Jim Marshall)


 
 
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