EFG-Hermes:Mobile phone growth to slow in Egypt

* Analyst sees 8 million new subscribers in 2009

* Sees mobile saturation of 80-85 percent by 2016

By Alastair Sharp

CAIRO, May 11 (Reuters) - Mobile telecom firms in Egypt will see growth in subscriber numbers cut by a third this year as the market for mobile phones approaches saturation, an EFG-Hermes analyst said on Monday.

Marise Ananian, head of telecoms research at EFG-Hermes, said she expected 8 million new subscribers to be added to Egypt's three mobile operators in 2009, after 12 million subscribers were added in 2008.

"Weassume market saturation in Egypt will be at 80 to 85 percent (of the population). The mobile penetration rate was at 55 percent at the end of 2008 and there is still room for growth but it will take until 2015 or 2016," she told Reuters.

Mobinil (EMOB.CA) and Vodafone Egypt (VOD.L) are Egypt's oldest mobile providers. The third operator Etisalat Misr ETEL.AD entered the market in 2006, adding to competition for lower income customers in particular.

Ananian said Mobinil, with 46 percent of market share, had been most aggressive in seeking new customers but would likely lose some ground to Etisalat Misr, which has about a 13 percent share and could probably reach 22 percent in the longer term.