INSTANT ANALYSIS - Winners and losers in S.Ossetia crisis
LONDON (Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt to military operations in Georgia on Tuesday after five days of fighting, just before French President Nicolas Sarkozy was to hold peace talks in Moscow.
Here are some of the implications for Russia, Georgia and the West.
* Russia has shown once again it calls the shots regionally, whether it is turning off gas supplies to Ukraine, turning off oil supplies to Lithuania or rebuffing a Georgian attempt to retake the pro-Russian, breakaway region of South Ossetia.
* Moscow tuned out calls by the United States, NATO and the European Union to halt its offensive in Georgia until it was satisfied the timing was right and it had achieved its objective of driving Georgian forces out of South Ossetia.
* Moscow's announcement of a unilateral halt to its military operations came shortly before French President Nicholas Sarkozy was due to speak to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in an effort to broker a peace deal. It looks to have made the shuttle diplomacy by France, the EU and OSCE largely irrelevant.
* Analysts say the United States' unwavering support of Georgia's pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili encouraged him to overreach himself and ultimately left Washington with little room to manoeuvre.
* The European Union, reliant on Russia for much of its oil and gas, showed itself relatively powerless against the will of Moscow.
* Russia may feel emboldened by its perceived success, but it may pay a price in terms of foreign investment. The rouble fell one percent against a dollar/euro basket on Friday and extended losses on Monday, though some of this was reversed after Medvedev's ceasefire announcement. Russian stocks hit their lowest level in two years on Monday. Foreign investors fear a deteriorating climate in Russia. They were already unnerved by the battle for control of oil firm TNK-BP and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's attack on the pricing policies of New York-listed coal and steel firm Mechel. Continued...


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